Insights 
VT 
WTI Oil prices declined to near $61 per barrel after three consecutive days of gains but are still poised for a weekly rise. This movement comes amid sanctions by the US against Russian Oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which together are responsible for nearly half of Russia’s Oil exports and over 5% of global Oil production.
Chinese Oil companies have paused purchasing Russian seaborne Oil, while Indian refiners intend to reduce their imports under the new sanctions. The European Union has also intensified sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, with Ukrainian forces continuing their strikes on refineries and pipelines. Despite these measures, Russia remains a major player in the global Oil market.
The US Measures and OPEC’s Position
The US has indicated it may implement further measures, while Russia claims the sanctions will have minimal economic impact. Meanwhile, OPEC is ready to adjust production to manage potential market shortages. WTI, a type of Crude Oil with low sulfur content, is a benchmark for Oil pricing and is primarily influenced by supply, demand, political events, and OPEC’s decisions. Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Agency also plays a role in affecting WTI prices.
The recent dip in WTI to around $61.00 should be viewed as a potential opportunity, as it appears to contradict the major supply-side news. We are seeing new US sanctions blacklist Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, creating a significant disruption. This move threatens to remove a substantial volume of crude from the global market.
The market is now trying to price in the halt of Russian seaborne imports by Chinese firms and planned cuts from India. Before these sanctions, Russia’s seaborne crude exports were averaging over 3.4 million barrels per day, so this is not a small disruption. Given these realities, the current price near $61 appears low, suggesting downside is limited.
We should remember the market reaction to geopolitical shocks in the recent past. In early 2022, following the initial invasion of Ukraine, WTI prices surged from around $90 to over $120 in just a few weeks. History suggests that initial market dips in response to such news can be short-lived before the supply reality sets in.
OPEC’s Potential Supply Response
However, we must watch OPEC’s response closely, as Kuwait’s oil minister has signaled a readiness to increase output. Recent data from the EIA in September 2025 estimated OPEC’s spare capacity at around 3.5 million barrels per day. This potential supply increase is the main factor that could cap a significant price rally in the coming weeks.
For derivative traders, this environment suggests that buying call options to bet on a price increase could be a primary strategy, using the current dip as an entry point. The uncertainty around the timing and size of OPEC’s response will likely drive up market volatility. Therefore, strategies that profit from large price swings, regardless of direction, should also be considered.
