Gold prices have continued their upward momentum following the recent rally induced by the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. This movement is driven by the dovish shift in interest rate expectations, with upcoming US Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports expected to serve as the next market influencers.
Jobless claims data could ease concerns regarding the labour market, while a higher-than-anticipated CPI could introduce more market uncertainty. In a broader context, gold is likely to maintain an upward trend due to the likelihood of declining real yields amid potential Federal Reserve easing.
Gold’s Technical Overview
On the daily chart, gold is trending upwards toward the key resistance level of 3,438. This level might see sellers stepping in, aiming for a drop towards the 3,245 support, while buyers hope for a breakout to new highs. The 4-hour chart shows consolidation between the 3,349 and 3,385 levels, with buyers and sellers working to influence price movements either upwards or towards support levels.
The 1-hour chart indicates potential for buyers to aim above the 3,385 level, while sellers may target a move below 3,349. As the market awaits, tomorrow’s US Jobless Claims are anticipated to provide further direction.
Based on the market action from our perspective on August 6, 2025, gold is showing strength following last Friday’s softer jobs report. The metal is drifting higher mostly on momentum, waiting for the next piece of major economic news. We believe this inertia could continue for another day or two.
All eyes are now on tomorrow’s Jobless Claims and next week’s inflation data. Consensus forecasts for the August 7th jobless claims report are for a slight dip to around 220,000, which would suggest the labor market isn’t weakening too quickly. This could temporarily limit gold’s upside.
Impact of Economic Indicators on Gold
The bigger event will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next week. Recent data from July 2025 showed core inflation remaining stubbornly above 3.5%, so another hot reading could spook the market and cause a sharp, short-term correction in gold. A softer number, however, would likely send gold surging higher.
Looking at the bigger picture, we feel the trend for gold remains positive. The market is currently pricing in a greater than 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September meeting, which is fundamentally supportive for a non-yielding asset like gold. We expect real yields to continue their downward trend from their peaks earlier this year, which should help gold climb higher over time.
We have seen this play out before, such as during the Fed’s easing cycle in 2019 when falling real yields helped fuel a significant rally in gold prices. Short-term pullbacks are likely, but the overall environment favors higher prices. These dips should be viewed as potential buying opportunities.
For derivative traders, the current consolidation between 3,349 and 3,385 is the immediate focus. A decisive break above the 3,385 level could be a signal to consider buying call options, targeting a move towards the major resistance zone around 3,438. This is where traders can take partial profits.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold these levels and breaks below the 3,349 support, it could open the door for a slide back to 3,245. In this scenario, traders might look at buying put options to capitalize on the downward momentum. This strategy offers a clear risk-defined way to play a potential short-term downturn.
