Gold’s price remains rangebound as the market seeks new catalysts following the resolution of the Israel-Iran conflict, which diminished geopolitical risks and impacted safe haven flows. The metal’s current trend contrasts with its broader uptrend, influenced by expectations of falling real yields amid Federal Reserve easing.

Upcoming economic data is vital for the gold market, as Federal Reserve members may opt for earlier or more cuts if inflation data remains low or the labour market weakens. On the daily chart, gold moves towards a crucial trendline, where buyers might aim for a rally to new highs, while sellers look for a break lower to ramp up bearish positions towards the 3120 level.

Bearish Momentum On The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart features a minor downward trendline indicating bearish momentum. Sellers might find a favourable risk-reward setup near this trendline for a potential break lower. Conversely, buyers could seek an upward break to bolster bullish positions. Similarly, on the 1-hour chart, a minor trendline shows continued bearish momentum. Sellers may use it for positioning below the major trendline, whereas buyers focus on breakouts to push for new highs.

Today concludes with the release of the US PCE price index and the Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which are pivotal for the gold market.

From what we’ve already seen, gold is pausing within an indecisive stretch, with prices confined between recent highs and structural supports. That hesitation reflects how market participants are waiting for the next piece of economic data to determine direction. With risks from the conflict in the Middle East now subsiding, earlier demand for gold as a protective asset has eased. This has reduced the urgency to hold gold solely for defensive purposes, and flows have shifted accordingly.

Sweet spot now lies not in geopolitics but in inflation numbers and policy outlooks. Traders like Powell have indicated that softer inflation or shakier jobs data could tilt the Fed toward rate cuts sooner. With the Fed’s stance so entwined with economic releases, each report must now be weighed closely, not just for its headline value, but for what it signals about the broader economic rhythm.

Resistance Near Trendline Levels

On higher timeframes, we’ve watched a steady climb for gold tied to falling yields, but that climb has now been held in check by resistance near trendline levels. It’s clear some are waiting for a breach before building long positions again, while others are pressing short-term downside ideas by playing against this resistance. That tug-of-war marks a tightening moment for positioning — one that requires faster decision-making and tighter risk control.

Shorter-term charts, especially at the four-hour level, show price rejecting lower highs, pinning near a descending trendline. This has given bears a spot to lean on, at least for now. They’re likely involved with limit orders either pre-defined near this line or seeking to fade strength. Buyers, meanwhile, are only likely to appear if we see a clear cross of that trendline with volume — something that hasn’t yet happened.

Zooming further in, the hour-by-hour chart displays more of the same — a staggered effort by sellers to suffocate upward moves. The fight around minor support levels has started to define whether there’s real appetite to push lower or whether we’re simply stuck in a drift phase. Either way, we can’t trade patterns that haven’t emerged yet. Patience — and fast reaction — are both needed here.

Later today, we’re watching for the PCE price index, one of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicators, as well as consumer sentiment figures. If both come in softer than expected — particularly PCE — that may firm expectations for a rate cut and put a prop under gold. On the flip side, any upside surprise, particularly in core PCE, could spark a stronger dollar bid and push gold to test the bottom of its current range.

In the coming sessions, we’re focusing on levels rather than forecasts. Key reaction areas on all timeframes now act as filters. If gold can push above these trendlines with momentum, buyers could finally have something to work with. But without confirmation from macro data, jumps in either direction risk becoming faded moves. Until we see conviction, using intraday structures aligned with macro expectations should be more effective than leaning too much into long-duration exposure.

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