Gold’s market remains stable as the US CPI report is anticipated next Tuesday. The NFP data capped gains due to increased interest rates expectations. A favourable CPI may lift gold, while higher-than-expected data could prompt a selloff.
Looking long-term, gold is expected to trend upward as real yields might decline with Federal Reserve easing. However, any hawkish adjustments in rate cut expectations could cause short-term corrections.
Gold Technical Analysis Daily Chart
On the daily chart, gold bounced around a major upward trendline, with buyers positioning below it for a potential rally towards the 3438 resistance. Sellers might wait for a resistance test or a trendline break to consider new lows.
The 4-hour chart shows the price breaking above a minor downward trendline, prompting increased bullish positions towards the 3438 resistance. Sellers may prefer to await a below-trendline break before thinking about new shorts.
On the 1-hour chart, a minor upward trendline defines bullish momentum. Buyers are likely to leverage this trendline for new highs, while sellers seek a break lower to aim for a pullback to the 3310 level. The red lines indicate today’s average daily range.
In simpler terms, what we’ve just read highlights the push and pull among traders ahead of a highly anticipated set of inflation data. Recent US jobs numbers hardened expectations around interest rates staying higher for longer, which held gold back from any real gains. If inflation readings next week come in lower than expected, traders could confidently add long positions in gold. However, should inflation overshoot, short-term holdings may be liquidated quickly to protect against rising yields, which tend to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.
Trading Strategy Overview
We’re seeing a pattern across multiple timeframes which, while technical in nature, gives us a fairly steady framework to build our trading plan. On the daily chart, the key upward trendline has now become a focal point. Price action has rebounded around this line, suggesting that some buyers continue to defend it. Those who were looking to re-enter on weakness may already be invested, anticipating a move towards the 3438 level, a known resistance from earlier this year. Others may not act unless price breaks below the current structure, as a decisive move under the trendline would likely shift near-term sentiment and attract sellers looking for a leg lower.
Zooming into the 4-hour view, there’s been a clear push above a short-term decline. It’s not dramatic, but it confirms that upward bias still holds some weight. Positions have likely been added on this minor breakout, with many watching the 3438 zone as a logical next point to trim or readjust. Those on the other side of the market appear unwilling to step in until a proper breakdown occurs. It’s the fear of getting caught in a continuation move that delays their action.
The 1-hour chart gives a tighter lens on immediate behaviour. A sharper trendline here has held firmly, perhaps giving scalpers and day traders the confidence to stay long within intraday sessions. The target remains just under the recent highs, while sellers are more interested in levels closer to 3310, which would only come into play if we see downside momentum gaining traction. The red lines on the chart identify what’s considered a typical daily price range, and current movement has stayed mostly within those levels, reinforcing the idea that larger players are waiting for Tuesday’s inflation print before shifting gears.
So how should one approach this? It makes sense from our view to keep stop placements tight when adding to longs near trend support. Should price stall below 3438, trailing stops might be wise. Shorts remain tactical for now, and can only strengthen their hand if charts start closing under the trendlines with volume. Until then, both directions remain active, but the upper edge holds more interest unless macro data says otherwise.
