Goldman Sachs has decided to keep its Brent/WTI price prediction for 2025 unchanged. This decision is influenced by OPEC+’s move to slowly reverse their 1.65 mb/d cuts, as OECD commercial stocks continue to be low. The firm projects the 2026 averages at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI.
Potential risks to the 2025–2026 price forecast are assessed as two-sided, with a slight tilt towards an increase. Goldman Sachs anticipates a larger surplus in 2026, primarily due to supply upgrades in the Americas outweighing Russian supply declines and increased global demand. The anticipated oil surplus for 2026 has been adjusted to 1.9 mb/d from a prior estimate of 1.7 mb/d.
Opec Measures And Market Stocks
Goldman Sachs also considers a full reversal of the 1.65 mb/d cuts a possibility. They expect OPEC+ to potentially halt quota increases from January 2026, contingent on noticeable rises in OECD commercial stocks by late 2025.
We see the forecast keeping Brent and WTI prices for 2025 steady and near the current forward curve. This view hinges on the idea that OPEC+ is starting to unwind its cuts because OECD commercial stocks are still quite low. The key takeaway for the coming weeks is navigating this short-term tightness against a potential surplus later on.
This perspective is reinforced by last week’s EIA data, which showed a surprise crude draw of 3.1 million barrels, against expectations of a small build. We are also seeing this reflected in positioning, as the latest CFTC report from September 2nd showed money managers increasing their net long positions in WTI futures and options. This suggests the market is currently more focused on the immediate supply-demand balance.
Pricing Strategy And Market Dynamics
For the coming weeks, this supports a strategy of owning near-term upside exposure, possibly through call spreads on November or December 2025 contracts. The slight upside risk mentioned in the report, combined with recent positive manufacturing data out of China, suggests any dips could be buying opportunities. Volatility might remain contained, but the risk of a sharp move up is greater than a move down before year-end.
Looking further out, the projected surplus of 1.9 mb/d for 2026 suggests a bearish structure for the deferred contracts. We could consider establishing calendar spreads, selling mid-2026 futures against buying late-2025 contracts to profit from the curve steepening into contango. This trade aligns with the view that OPEC+ will have to pause its production increases in early 2026 as inventories rise.
We should not discount OPEC+’s flexibility, as we witnessed with their significant interventions back in the 2022-2024 period. The assumption that they will pause quota increases if stocks build seems credible, given their historical preference for market stability over pure volume. This creates a floor for prices, but also caps the extreme upside beyond 2025.
The forecast’s specific mention of supply upgrades in the Americas, particularly from non-OPEC sources, could weigh on WTI relative to Brent. This suggests the Brent-WTI spread might widen in the coming months from its current narrow range of around $4.00. Traders could look at positioning for this widening by going long Brent futures while simultaneously selling WTI futures for the same delivery period.
