Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on gold prices, predicting a base price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025. They foresee a potential increase to $4,000 by mid-2026 if conditions align.

In case of a recession, the firm anticipates ETF inflows may push gold prices to $3,880. Extreme risk situations, such as doubts over Federal Reserve independence or alterations in U.S. reserve policy, could propel prices up to $4,500 by the close of 2025.

Framework Of Predictions

What Goldman Sachs is laying out here is not just a prediction, but a framework built on differing levels of stress in the financial system. At its core, the messaging is that gold’s trajectory depends less on short-term market noise and more on broad macroeconomic behaviour, particularly central bank posture and investor sentiment under strain. They’re effectively mapping a hierarchy of scenarios—from steady growth, to moderate economic turbulence, to high-intensity dislocation—and assigning incrementally higher price anticipation as these scenarios intensify.

At the lowest threshold, it’s business-as-usual: inflation expectations holding firm, rate adjustments proceeding in a measured way. Within that boundary, we understand the $3,700 forecast as a realistic base level, built more on monetary rather than industrial demand. In these quieter conditions, non-interest-bearing assets become attractive primarily when real yields compress. Any hint of easing, which would generally come in line with a slower economy or inflation below targets, feeds the metal.

Now, should risk start to climb—let’s say unemployment underperforms or forward earnings estimates begin to dip—then capital often swivels into safety. That’s where exchange-traded fund inflows into gold start moving from stable to aggressive. It’s also the point at which price symmetry breaks; options markets tend to widen sharply in premium once tail-risk speculators act. This is what drives their view up to $3,880 under recession stress: it’s a reflection not only of physical buying but of hedging against missteps in policy reaction.

Where it gets markedly more charged is under the third premise, where assumptions that underpin stability begin to waver. Questions about the central bank’s independence or sudden revisions in how the U.S. holds its reserves—that creates disorder, not just concern. It’s in these moments that we see traders abandoning structured hedges and rotating directly into uncorrelated stores of value. Make no mistake, the $4,500 threshold isn’t inflation pricing alone—it’s panic infused into flight-to-safety.

Monitoring Volatility And Liquidity

From our seat, this layout does not mandate directional conviction as much as readiness to recalibrate. Surface volatility might rise more sharply than models reflect, particularly if policymakers offer mixed signals. So we lean into higher gamma strategies with limited duration initially, avoiding longer-dated posturing until clearer shifts in core CPI prints emerge. Bear in mind: in a rally led chiefly by passive ETF allocation, intraday liquidity thins out quickly.

We’re watching funding spreads too, as they can spike in the lead-in to spikes in gold. That’s part of what moves structured traders to hedge not only via the metal itself but through broadening collateral baskets. Duration hedging should increase in relevance if Treasury yields and metal prices begin to diverge.

One other note—volatility smiles on longer-term gold options are unusually flat. That suggests current market pricing does not yet fully account for tail scenarios. If volatility firms up into the next CPI release, optionality around upside breakouts becomes mispriced. That’s where skew steepeners aligned into Q1 2025 could reward well before the price action becomes obvious across the spot curve.

Liquidity patterns, particularly around major economic prints, are unlikely to hold steady. Ahead of quarter-end balancing, we expect more whipsaws on thin volumes. That’s not inherently a signal, but it does influence execution and slippage in leveraged strategies. For us, that points towards a preference for defined-risk setups over open-ended directional commitment.

All told, there is structure here—what appears a bold price range is actually built from precedent responses to instability. Moral hazard remains a theme. So we structure accordingly.

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