Goldman Sachs has updated its forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields, predicting the 2-year yield to end 2025 at 3.45% and the 10-year at 4.20%. These figures are a reduction from earlier estimates of 3.85% for the 2-year yield and 4.50% for the 10-year yield.
The revised predictions apply to all key maturities. The change is attributed to an increased likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates sooner than initially expected, now projected for September instead of December.
Shift In Expectations Around Monetary Policy
Goldman’s latest revisions suggest a shift in expectations around monetary policy, driven primarily by softer economic data and signs that inflation pressures may be steadying. Their earlier projections had assumed a more delayed response by the Federal Reserve, but incoming indicators have changed the trajectory. Shorter-term yields often react strongly to changes in rate expectations, which explains the scale of the downward adjustment for the 2-year note. Meanwhile, the updated forecast for the 10-year yield, although also trimmed, reflects ongoing concerns about borrowing needs and long-term fiscal dynamics.
From our side, we interpret the lowered yield outlook as implying a milder tightening cycle with rate cuts coming in ahead of schedule. For those with directional exposure in interest-rate products, this adjustment should not be shrugged off. Powell’s signals and recent FOMC commentary are beginning to point in this direction, albeit cautiously. We are seeing greater pricing in of a September cut across futures markets, and if labour market softness continues, that window may well come into stronger focus.
Given the reduced return expectations across maturities, steepening trades may lose some of their edge if front-end values catch further bid. This means rethinking classic curve positioning. A flatter structure, which once signalled recession fears, might now emerge from rate trimming rather than growth worries. This adds complexity to timing exits and entries in spread-based trades.
Meanwhile, funding dynamics are changing discreetly. With short-end yields likely to come under pressure, leverage constraints and roll costs will begin to matter more. For those using swaps or futures, roll capture becomes harder to justify beyond the very front of the curve.
Changing Funding Dynamics
Yellen’s department continues to issue with confidence, feeding the long end. Yet this new yield path suggests reduced pressure on Treasury to adjust issuance schedules near-term. As such, supply distortions may ease – and TIPS markets might start to recalibrate toward more modest long-term inflation expectations.
We are keeping a close eye on rate volatility, especially in the swaption market, which has yet to reflect the full pivot priced in Fed Funds futures. Implieds remain sticky, leaving some room for tactical positions in volatility compression to play out, particularly around September expiry.
As the Fed’s communication becomes clearer over the summer, liquidity conditions and macro hedge flows could accelerate repricing, especially if core inflation points lower. But remember, while the headline forecast has shifted, skew in yields remains. Higher-frequency traders should watch for dislocations between market-implied path and Fed rhetoric at upcoming conferences. There will be opportunities – both from mean reversion and overcorrections. Choose entries with precision and avoid crowded expressions.
