Gold price holds firm during the European session but remains below its recent peak. The US Dollar struggles amid concerns over US fiscal policy and persistent trade uncertainties, which boost demand for gold as a safe haven.

A robust US jobs report reduced expectations for a Fed interest rate cut, supporting the USD but not enough to dampen gold’s ascent. Despite positive risk sentiment, gold price aims to end a two-week losing streak, with the current trend favouring more upward movement.

Us Labor Market Data

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, exceeding forecasts. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1%, reducing chances for an immediate Fed rate cut. Wage growth slowed, easing inflation worries but allowing room for two potential 25 basis point rate cuts this year.

Trump’s tax bill could add $3.4 trillion to US debt, stifling the USD and benefiting gold. Trade tensions further support gold prices, as Trump plans to notify partners of tariff changes. US markets are closed for Independence Day, affecting XAU/USD liquidity.

Technically, gold’s upward move faces resistance near $3,352-$3,355 and $3,365-$3,366, with potential to reach $3,400. Support lies at $3,326-$3,325 and $3,300, with a break possibly favouring bears.

What we’re seeing at present is gold holding its ground during European hours, though unable to surpass the high point set earlier in the week. That high remains just out of reach for now. Behind this, pressure on the dollar continues to simmer as questions mount about the direction of US fiscal management. This, coupled with unease over looming trade shifts, has given gold a supportive undercurrent, enhancing its appeal as a defensive refuge.

Market Dynamics And Technical Analysis

The recent labour data out of the US added another piece to the puzzle. Payrolls increased more than expected—147,000 against consensus—and the jobless rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1%. That in itself might have backed the dollar further, but wage growth didn’t keep pace. That’s softened inflation expectations just enough to reignite chatter about potential policy easing later in the year. Rates may still be cut, but now markets are eyeing one, maybe two quarter-point cuts, not sooner than September.

It’s also worth noting that fiscal policy isn’t helping. The tax overhaul put forward by the former president is now estimated to bloat public debt by over $3 trillion. That level of borrowing weighs heavily on dollar sentiment, even if not immediately priced in. Add to that the noise around proposed tariffs—there’s been talk of notifying trade partners of upcoming measures—and that murky backdrop only strengthens the hand of gold bulls.

Liquidity is thinner than usual this week with US markets shut for Independence Day. Reduced volumes inevitably lead to choppier price action, particularly for instruments like gold where safe haven flows can be intensified by even modest newsflow.

We see a clear technical structure forming. The upside has resistance initially at $3,352–$3,355, and a little higher at $3,365–$3,366. Should prices clear both, a move toward $3,400 would gather momentum. The flipside, where prices lose footing, places attention on the support band between $3,326 and $3,325. Breaching $3,300 would open a more prolonged period of softness and might tilt positioning to the downside for the first time in weeks.

Given that, attention for us over the coming sessions will be less about broad direction—which remains tentatively higher—and more about trigger levels. If prices can secure closes above resistance, we could see a wave of stops give way, providing energy for a strong push. On the other hand, failure to hold support would signal growing fatigue among bulls.

For those positioned with leverage, sensitivity to economic calendars and rate positioning is becoming more relevant by the day. Sharp intraday swings are increasingly reacting to even modest tweaks in policy language or unexpected data surprises. Accordingly, stops may need to be recalibrated more often than usual as hourly or four-hour charts dictate play.

As conditions shift, adaptation is not optional—it’s necessary.

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