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VT 
Gold Price Analysis
Gold reached a new all-time high after a strong surge beginning last Friday. Despite no clear catalyst, falling real yields since Powell’s dovish turn have supported the rise in gold prices.
Attention shifts to upcoming US labour market data, including the NFP report on Friday. Strong data might increase chances of a September rate cut, potentially weighing on gold, while weaker data may boost gold further by encouraging dovish bets.
Overall, gold is expected to maintain its uptrend as real yields continue to decline due to anticipated Fed easing. In the short term, expectations of hawkish rate movements might trigger price corrections.
Technically, gold broke out of a 4-month range, reaching a new high, where sellers could emerge with the target of 3,245 support. Buyers aim for higher breaks to increase bullish momentum.
On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline supports bullish momentum, with buyers likely capitalising on any retracements, while sellers aim to breach this support targeting 3,245.
Market Trends and Expectations
The 1-hour chart shows a minor trendline providing support, with buyers defending it for further gains. Sellers seek to break this support, aiming for the next trendline near 3,438.
Key US data releases include ISM Manufacturing PMI, Job Openings, ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI, and the NFP report throughout the week.
Gold reaching a new all-time high today, September 2nd, 2025, is a significant event for us. This move seems supported by falling real yields, with the 10-year real yield recently dropping to 1.1% following the Fed Chair’s dovish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium last month. The lack of a specific catalyst for today’s surge suggests we might be seeing a technical breakout driven by momentum.
The focus now shifts entirely to this week’s US labor market data, culminating in the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. We need to be cautious, as the last jobs report in August 2025 was mixed, creating uncertainty about the Fed’s path. This week’s data is critical, especially after Q2 2025 GDP growth was confirmed at a sluggish 1.2%, increasing the stakes for the Fed’s September decision.
For traders anticipating a pullback, this new peak presents an opportunity to position for a drop towards the 3,245 support level. If upcoming data like the ISM reports or Friday’s NFP come in surprisingly strong, it could reduce the chances of an imminent rate cut. This scenario would make buying short-dated put options or selling call spreads above the current high a viable strategy.
On the other hand, the broader trend appears upward as long as the Fed is preparing to ease policy. Any dip caused by market noise could be a buying opportunity for those with a longer view. A pullback to the trendline support around the 3,438 level might be the ideal entry point to purchase call options, betting that soft labor data will solidify rate cut expectations.
We must remember how markets have reacted in the past to changing rate expectations. We saw significant gold corrections in the spring of 2024 when a string of hot inflation reports forced the Fed to delay its easing cycle. Therefore, even with a bullish outlook, we should prepare for short-term volatility and sharp reversals if the data challenges the dovish narrative.
