Gold prices in India decreased on Thursday, with the cost per gram falling to 11,541.37 Indian Rupees (INR) from the previous day’s 11,580.38 INR. The price per tola also dropped to INR 134,673.20 from INR 135,066.80.

The US administration is considering a plan to limit software-powered exports to China in response to China’s restrictions on rare earth exports. This comes amid a government shutdown in the US, now in its fourth week, with the Senate expected to vote on a funding bill likely to fail.

Gold’s Performance in 2025

Gold has gained over 50% in 2025, outpacing previous periods like the 2008 financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic. A technical sell-off has led to profit-taking, but Gold remains up approximately 55% this year. The Fed funds futures indicate a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut.

FXStreet updates Indian Gold prices by adjusting international USD rates to local currency, noting some potential deviation from market rates. Gold is highly regarded as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation. Central banks worldwide, particularly from emerging economies, are significant Gold purchasers to boost economic strength.

Given the minor dip in gold prices today, we see this not as a sign of weakness, but as technical profit-taking. The metal is still up approximately 55% in 2025, a historic rally, and this small pullback could represent a consolidation phase. The long-term upward trend appears very much intact for now.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its fourth week, is a significant source of instability that supports gold. As it approaches the record 35-day shutdown we saw back in 2018-2019, the political uncertainty is driving investors toward safe-haven assets. This domestic turmoil in the world’s largest economy is a powerful tailwind for bullion.

Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Influence

Furthermore, we see a near-certain interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with markets pricing in a 97% probability. This expectation is solidified by recent economic data, such as the report showing U.S. job growth slowed to just 95,000 in September. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it a more attractive investment.

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China add another layer of support, even with a potential meeting on the horizon. The threat of new U.S. export curbs in retaliation for China’s rare earth restrictions creates uncertainty that benefits gold. This unresolved conflict means that a baseline level of risk will likely remain priced into the market.

We should also consider that institutional demand remains incredibly strong. Following record purchases in previous years, recent World Gold Council data for Q3 2025 shows central banks added another 250 tonnes to their reserves. This sustained buying from the world’s largest financial institutions provides a solid floor for gold prices.

Therefore, derivative traders should view this current price dip as a potential buying opportunity. We believe that using options strategies, such as buying call options or establishing bull call spreads, could be an effective way to position for a resumption of the uptrend. These strategies allow for participation in potential gains while managing risk in what has become a volatile market.

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