Gold Pressured by Policy Expectations and Inflation Concerns
Gold (XAU/USD) stayed under pressure ahead of Thursday’s European session, trading near the monthly swing low around $4,070-$4,065 and down over 1.50% on the day, after slipping below the $4,100 level. US inflation data has reinforced expectations of tighter policy, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing about a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate rise in December, while oil-price volatility is feeding inflation concerns that can weigh on non-yielding gold. The US Dollar remained near a three-week low as officials indicated no urgency to raise rates at the October 27–28 meeting, and US bond yields continued to retreat from multi-year highs, though Middle East tensions were cited as a potential support.
Geopolitical Risks and Technical Outlook
Geopolitical risk persisted after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was open to diplomacy but ready to defend itself, and a report said the US and Israel had drawn up plans for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections. Technically, XAU/USD is bearish below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, with MACD negative and RSI in the mid-30s. Support is flagged at $4,075-$4,065, then $4,030-$4,025 and $4,000, while resistance sits near $4,140, $4,200 and the 200-period SMA at $4,232, with US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims due before Friday’s global flash PMIs and next week’s FOMC meeting.
