Insights 
VT 
Gold prices are on track for a rise of over 60% this year, marking the strongest annual gain since 1979. Back then, geopolitical crises and high inflation led to a surge in Gold prices. This year has seen record highs, with the last peak in October at $4,380 per troy ounce.
Impact Of Us Policies
Uncertainty from US policies has pushed demand for Gold as a safe haven, impacting the US dollar’s appeal. There is a notable inflow into Gold ETFs as a result. The anticipated loosening of the US monetary policy is a factor expected to drive Gold prices higher in the coming year.
Central banks are continuing substantial Gold purchases, intending to diversify currency reserves. This trend is likely to surpass levels seen prior to 2022, partly due to geopolitical tensions. Physical demand, especially for Gold jewellery, is affected by high prices, but strong investment demand may counterbalance this. A price increase to $4,400 per troy ounce is expected next year.
Gold has had a historic run this year, marking its strongest gain since the late 1970s. With prices as of today, December 2nd, 2025, hovering just below the October record of $4,380, we see the potential for a move towards the $4,400 target in the coming year. This environment suggests positioning for continued upside, as a break of the recent high would be a strong bullish signal.
We anticipate significant monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve, which remains a key driver for higher gold prices. Recent inflation data showing a gradual cooling to 3.1% in October gives dovish members more room to argue for rate cuts in early 2026. This reinforces the view that the path of least resistance for gold is upwards, especially as the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven has diminished.
Gold Derivatives And Market Strategy
In the derivatives market, this suggests looking at call options with strike prices at or above the $4,400 level for early 2026 expirations. Long positions in gold futures contracts should also be considered, particularly on any dips or a decisive break above the previous high. Implied volatility remains elevated, reflecting the market’s anticipation of a significant move following a period of consolidation.
This bullish outlook is further supported by persistent, strong demand from central banks looking to diversify reserves. Recent World Gold Council data for the third quarter of 2025 confirmed they were buying at near-record levels, a structural trend we first saw accelerate after Russian assets were frozen back in 2022. These large, price-insensitive buyers provide a solid floor under the market.
While the high price has dampened physical demand for jewelry, this is being overshadowed by powerful investment inflows into gold ETFs, which saw another net positive flow in November. For those with a slightly more cautious view, selling out-of-the-money put options could be a viable strategy. This allows for collecting premium while expressing a bullish-to-neutral stance on the price in the coming weeks.
