Gold prices recently fell to their lowest since 1 August, reaching a session low of $3311.62, close to the rising 100-day moving average of $3304.32. This support level prompted buying activity, leading to a rebound, with gold now trading $26.77 higher at $3341.76.
Maintaining a position above the 100-day moving average is important for a bullish outlook. A drop below this level would shift momentum negatively, challenging buyers to regain control. Currently, gold trades within a range of $3246 to $3452, with price fluctuations contained despite recent downward pressure.
Gold’s Short-term Recovery
On hourly charts, gold has surpassed the 100-hour moving average at $3336.26, indicating short-term recovery. However, it remains under the 200-hour moving average at $3350. To strengthen a bullish stance in the short to medium term, gold must break and sustain levels above this average.
Gold stocks face pressure with the NASDAQ down by 1.75% and the S&P by 0.92%. The NASDAQ trades further below its 200-hour moving average of 21124.99, currently at 20936. The S&P index is under its 100-day moving average of 682.13, testing its 200-hour moving average at 6350.79, with today’s low at 6350.48.
As of today, August 20, 2025, gold is showing strength by bouncing firmly off its 100-day moving average. This safe-haven bid is a direct response to the weakness in equities, which are faltering after the recent July CPI report showed inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.8%. We see this as a classic risk-off setup, favoring precious metals over stocks for the time being.
For gold derivatives, holding call options or long futures positions seems prudent as long as we remain above the critical $3304 support level. A key hurdle to watch is the 200-hour moving average near $3350; a decisive break above this could trigger further buying. This upward pressure is also supported by massive central bank buying, which has already absorbed over 400 tonnes in the first half of 2025 alone.
Strategic Perspectives on Indices
On the S&P 500, the index’s dip below its 200-hour moving average today at 6350 is a significant bearish signal for us. We believe buying put options or establishing short futures positions is a logical response, especially as the market prices in the growing likelihood of another Fed rate hike in September. This market sensitivity is a lesson we learned well during the inflation shocks of 2023 and 2024, making traders quick to sell on signs of persistent price pressures.
The NASDAQ is showing even greater weakness, trading well below its key moving averages, which suggests tech stocks are particularly vulnerable to higher interest rate expectations. This environment is ripe for strategies like bear put spreads to limit risk while capitalizing on further downside. We are closely watching to see if buyers can defend the 20,900 level in the coming days.
