Gold rose to about $4,065 in early Asian trade as softer crude eased near-term inflation anxiety, while markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s October decision. Oil fell for a second day on focus shifting to Middle East peace talks, though renewed US-Iran or Houthi-Saudi Arabia tensions could lift energy prices and revive inflation risks, a negative for non-yielding bullion if it reinforces tighter monetary policy. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, with pricing implying a 6.6% chance of a hike on Wednesday; however, odds for a December increase sit at 84.4%. Attention then turns to Thursday’s US PCE release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, against a 2% target.
Broader Market Conditions
Across markets, strategists described a mixed backdrop: WTI held just above $100/bbl and Brent above $115/bbl, while equities were uneven, with China’s CSI weak versus a 3% gain in the Kospi and generally soft European bourses. A Fed sentiment read was steady at 127.51, while a speech score came in at 5.6/10 versus a 6.1/10 historical average.
Technical Picture for Gold
Technically, XAU/USD remained below the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, with RSI (14) at 41; resistance sits near $4,125 then $4,220 and $4,235, while support is seen at $4,015.
