Insights 
VT 
The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow experienced their worst decline since 21 May, spurred by geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran and Iran’s subsequent response. This prompted a selling trend in the markets.
By the close, each major index had fallen by -1.13% or more. Specifically, the Dow Industrial Average decreased by -769.83 points, or -1.79%, closing at 42,197.79. It fell below its 200-day moving average of 42,502.38 and its 100-day moving average of 42,233.09.
Market Indices Performance
The S&P index dropped by -68.29 points, or -1.13%, ending at 5,976.97. It dipped below, then recovered to, its 100-hour moving average support at 5,964.44. The NASDAQ index declined by -255.66 points, or -1.30%, finishing at 19,406.83, having tested its 100-hour moving average at 19,390.24.
For the week, the indices also registered declines, with the Dow Industrial Average down by -1.32%, the S&P index by -0.39%, and the Nasdaq index by -0.63%. This indicates a downward trend amidst the geopolitical events that influenced market behaviour.
The piece outlines a decisive market pullback, sparked by heightened conflict between Israel and Iran. This led to a broad wave of selling across the major US equity indices. All three benchmarks moved firmly lower during the session, with losses continuing into the week overall. Looking more closely, weekly and daily percentage declines reflect how the market adjusted swiftly in reaction to rapidly moving global events. The implication here is straightforward—external shocks are currently exerting heavy impact on price action, not just short-term volatility.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell well below both its 200-day and 100-day moving averages, which can act as gauges for buying interest during longer-term trends. This development suggests a shift in sentiment. Breaking under these levels typically signals that market participants are becoming more risk-averse. Once this happens, selling pressure often builds from passive fund managers that track momentum indicators. The numbers reflect that this has already begun.
Meanwhile, the S&P bounced after tagging its 100-hour moving average, hinting that short-term buyers stepped in, though the rebound was not especially strong. A move below such an average often draws attention from short-dated futures traders, and while it held early support, the broader weak close for the week shows that longer-term risk takers may not be stepping in just yet.
Technicals and Market Sentiment
The Nasdaq followed a similar path—testing its support and closing slightly above it—but without showing any real buying enthusiasm. It’s clear that technical levels are now driving automatic orders, but not with conviction strong enough to reverse direction decisively. Weakness across growth names would likely reflect more than just temporary jitters.
From our standpoint, this elevated sensitivity to geopolitical developments means that direction is being defined not only by earnings or economic statistics, but by headlines. Traders reliant on implied volatility and futures tracking should therefore account for external catalysts as primed triggers, especially over weekends when gaps risk displacing strategies. These scenarios create broader opportunity for those operating in the options space, but they demand razor-sharp timing and frequent exposure adjustments.
Given the movement through and around key technical areas this week, activity in futures-linked products may be more responsive around established hourly levels than traditional swing positions. There’s an apparent shift in overnight position-taking behaviour, particularly in regions affected by timezone overlaps. It’s worth watching liquidity during late sessions and how that ties into extended selloffs or quick reversals.
Moreover, last week’s sustained weakness—even into the close—suggests less institutional support at current price levels. That means automated strategies will likely continue to drive much of the flow until macro or political developments provide enough clarity to reintroduce stronger discretionary interest. Interim trades should maintain tighter risk tolerances, especially when exposure is concentrated near broader averages that have recently failed.
Movements like those recorded also tend to coincide with changes in hedging flows. If we continue to see pressure on key technical zones in the days ahead, repricing in options may outpace shifts in the underlying, allowing for potentially higher gamma-related moves near peak volume marks.
From our analysis, derivative traders who focus on intraday turnarounds should keep an eye on rebound attempts near hourly averages, but refrain from assuming durability unless volumes support them. We believe the asymmetry currently favours more controlled downside probing over strong upside retracements. If price continues to churn below daily averages without strong closes above key resistance, the path of least resistance stays downward through next week.
