Insights 
VT 
The European benchmark gas price (TTF) increased, trading at nearly EUR 33 per MWh, due to forecasts of colder-than-usual temperatures for the coming month. This has raised concerns about gas storage levels, which have risen since spring but remain below past levels.
Increased heating demand and reduced gas flows from Norway, the EU’s main supplier, due to maintenance work, may also affect supply. According to GIE data, gas storage refilling has nearly halted, with a minimal increase from 82.5% to 82.75% over the past week.
In September, weekly storage increases averaged over one percentage point. However, Germany’s storage levels have slightly decreased, from 76.7% to 76.3%.
The jump in European gas prices to nearly €33 per MWh is a clear signal that the market is shifting its focus to winter supply risks. Weather forecasts predicting a cold snap are forcing an early start to the heating season. We believe this introduces a bullish sentiment, making it a key moment to re-evaluate short positions.
We are entering this colder period with a weaker buffer than we have become accustomed to over the past couple of years. EU gas storage is currently at 82.75%, which is a concerning level when compared to early October 2023, when our storage facilities were over 95% full. This significantly smaller cushion means any unexpected supply disruption or prolonged cold spell will have a much greater impact on prices.
The supply side is also showing fragility, with reduced gas flows from Norway due to maintenance compounding the issue. The fact that German storage levels have already dipped slightly, from 76.7% to 76.3%, shows that withdrawals are already beginning. This is an unusually early reversal and a strong indicator that the market’s supply-demand balance is tightening faster than anticipated.
This situation suggests that call options on front-month and Q1 2026 TTF futures contracts now carry increased potential. We saw in the winter of 2022 how quickly prices can react to supply fears, and with a lower starting point for storage, the risk premium for winter delivery is likely to rise sharply. Traders should watch for opportunities in calendar spreads, as a cold November could create significant divergence between near-term and future contracts.
