Insights 
VT 
China’s exports from January to April, measured in yuan, increased by 7.5% year-on-year, while imports declined by 4.2% in the same period. In April alone, yuan-denominated exports grew by 9.3% compared to a previous growth of 13.5%, and imports rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a change from a prior decrease of 3.5%.
When measured in US dollars, exports for the January to April period rose by 6.4% year-on-year, and imports fell by 5.2%. The trade balance during this time was a surplus of $368.76 billion. The trade surplus with the United States was $97.07 billion for these four months.
Analysis Of April Figures
For April, the figures in US dollar terms show exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year. Imports decreased slightly by 0.2% in April. The trade balance for April resulted in a surplus of $96.18 billion. The trade surplus with the United States for April was $20.46 billion.
China’s external trade figures present a mixed but instructive picture, especially when viewed through the lens of derivative exposure and hedging strategy. From January to April, Chinese exports advanced by 7.5% in yuan terms, pointing to a fairly solid foreign demand profile. At the same time, imports dipped by 4.2%, an indication of restrained domestic consumption or potentially reduced input costs for exporters. This divergence widened the trade surplus comfortably, accumulating to over $368 billion by April when measured in US dollars, with a notable tilt towards the United States.
In April specifically, the story became more nuanced. Exports did rise by 9.3% in yuan, though that marked a deceleration from the prior 13.5%. Most notably for us, imports shifted course — climbing by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a reversal from the 3.5% contraction seen earlier. When translated into dollar terms, we observed a gain of 8.1% for exports, while imports edged down only slightly. The resulting surplus — exceeding $96 billion — was almost unchanged despite shifts in individual components.
What this tells us, quite plainly, is that while external demand continues to hold its pace, there is a subtle, albeit clear, hint of a rebound on the import side. This doesn’t suggest that internal demand is surging, but it might reflect resumption in inventory restocking or marginal uptick in industrial consumption. Whether this holds or not in the coming months hinges on input prices globally, particularly commodities and intermediate goods.
Impact And Future Considerations
The steady surplus with the United States — $97 billion over four months — is one of those data points that shouldn’t be ignored. It continues to raise the likelihood of further geopolitical or trade-related measures, particularly in the run-up to political cycles elsewhere. For us, this implies keeping exposure to trade-sensitive instruments under close observation, especially those that could respond sharply to new tariffs or policy gestures.
Given this backdrop, and the clear asymmetry in export-import momentum, we’ve been watching currency volatility around the yuan more attentively, as the People’s Bank of China may act to support competitiveness depending on broader inflation readings. For traders in derivatives markets, especially those operating in rate and currency-linked products, the initial read is this: there’s been some mean reversion in the trade balance dynamics, but not enough to shift where exposures need to be held in the short term.
Most peers are likely to hone in on the direction of manufacturing PMIs and the degree of price pressure in subsequent releases — those will start to tell us if this recent bump in imports reflects genuine industrial pick-up or is just a seasonal wrinkle. In the meantime, movements in offshore yuan and high-beta Asian currencies should offer the cleanest read for directional conviction, especially into expiries during late Q2.
If momentum in exports continues to slow — as April’s moderated figures suggest — we might see an eventual cap on trade-driven GDP support. At this stage though, the surplus provides enough cushion that we aren’t revisiting growth worries just yet. Vol strategies centred on Asia’s ex-Japan economies remain preferable, especially where skew is pricing in downside risk that doesn’t align with actual realiseds.
It’s also worth noting: as we scan commodity import lines, we’ve seen more stability in raw material inputs, enough to warrant a tactically neutral stance on bulk freight hedging for now. Should the import gains persist, duration exposures tied to shipping rates may need review.
Ultimately, the convergence of stabilising imports and tapering export growth does not demand directional panic. But it certainly supports a higher frequency of position reviews across cross-asset risk. Medium-delta strategies may require trimming, depending on how the next export figures land. In the meantime, there’s a noticeable skew in longer-dated vol that doesn’t yet align with either the data set or the premium curve — and that’s where dislocation opportunities begin to appear.
