Insights 
VT 
Japan saw a decrease in foreign investment in its stocks, dropping from ¥1885 billion to ¥752.6 billion in October.
The Australian dollar declined as the US dollar gained, amidst risk aversion, while gold tumbled as traders booked profits ahead of key US inflation data.
Us Considered Export Restrictions To China
The US considered export restrictions to China made with American software. The US dollar index hovered around 99.00, reflecting potential for a US-China trade deal.
Before Canadian retail sales data was released, USD/CAD maintained losses below 1.4000. Canadian PM Mark Carney noted the end of decades-long economic integration with the US.
EUR/USD climbed above 1.1600 after a Greenback pullback, though GBP/USD saw four consecutive down days ending around the 1.3350 region, with traders awaiting key economic data.
Gold remained under pressure, staying below $4,100 amidst geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin approached $107,000, with predictions of a drop below $100,000 by the weekend.
Gold and silver prices fell sharply, impacting mining stocks. ETF manager 21Shares planned to merge with crypto broker FalconX in an undisclosed deal.
Information On Investment Risks
Information on investment risks and responsibilities was provided, emphasising the need for thorough research and the lack of personalised recommendations.
Given the sharp drop in foreign investment in Japanese stocks, we should anticipate continued weakness in the Nikkei 225. This recent data from October reverses the strong foreign buying trend we saw in parts of 2024, suggesting a significant shift in sentiment. Consider buying put options on Japanese equity ETFs as a hedge or a speculative short position for the coming weeks.
The US dollar is strengthening due to a broader risk-off mood, and we should expect this to continue. The latest Federal Reserve minutes from early October 2025 reinforced a commitment to maintaining current interest rates, which supports dollar strength against currencies like the Australian dollar. We see opportunities in being long the US Dollar Index (DXY) through futures contracts, especially as it finds support.
We must be cautious with gold as traders are taking profits ahead of key US inflation data due in mid-November. After the persistent inflation we dealt with back in 2023 and 2024, any sign of it ticking up could hit gold hard as it would strengthen the dollar further. Short-term bearish strategies, such as selling call spreads on gold futures, could be effective until that inflation data is released.
The comments from the Canadian Prime Minister about economic decoupling from the US signal a major long-term headwind for the Canadian dollar. This aligns with recent trade data from Statistics Canada that has shown a modest but consistent decline in cross-border trade volumes over the last two quarters. We believe being long USD/CAD through spot or options is a sensible position, targeting a move above the 1.4000 level.
Heightened US-China tensions are creating uncertainty, and derivatives can be used to navigate the resulting volatility. The news of potential US export curbs could negatively impact Chinese tech stocks and US semiconductor firms alike. We can prepare by using options straddles on relevant sector ETFs to profit from a large price move in either direction.
Bitcoin’s current hesitation around $107,000 suggests significant risk, especially following the major run-up after the 2024 halving event. The derivatives market is pricing in this nervousness, as seen in the rising open interest for put options expiring in November and December 2025. Traders should consider purchasing puts to protect long positions or to speculate on a drop below the critical $100,000 psychological level.
