Insights 
VT 
Ford Motor Company recently exceeded Q3 earnings expectations, reporting $0.45 EPS instead of the expected $0.35. This was driven by strong demand for its truck and hybrid vehicles, offsetting losses in the electric vehicle division. Ford’s revenue increased to $50.5 billion, surpassing analyst predictions despite a fire at a key supplier plant impacting full-year EBIT guidance, potentially costing up to $2 billion.
The company continues to shift strategies, moving electric vehicle production to Europe for cost-efficiency and benefiting from relaxed U.S. emissions regulations. Although the stock is near a 52-week high, the average price target remains below current levels, indicating limited potential for growth. This situation presents a challenge as macroeconomic conditions and execution risks weigh against Ford’s 6.3% dividend yield and operational strength.
In technical analysis, Ford’s share price remains in wave (Y), with potential movements affecting its correction pattern. The current wave is forming a double correction with the potential to break above 13.97, with sellers defending the 14.88 high. If prices break this level, it indicates a completed wave II, suggesting a bullish shift. Buyers are focusing on the 11.86–10.52 range, crucial to maintaining upward momentum.
We see a clear conflict between Ford’s strong Q3 operational results and the significant downward revision of its full-year guidance. The anticipated $2 billion earnings hit from the Novelis supplier fire is a major headwind, overshadowing the robust truck and hybrid sales. This creates an environment of uncertainty, which is ideal for options strategies that profit from either a defined price range or a significant breakout.
Our primary view remains that the current rally is a temporary wave B, with a move down toward the $7.79–$6.05 zone still expected. For traders anticipating this move, the $14.88 level is the critical line in the sand to watch. Any options strategies, like buying puts or establishing bear call spreads with expirations in early 2026, should be structured around the expectation that sellers will defend this high.
However, if the market’s momentum pushes the stock decisively above $14.88, we would have to abandon the bearish count. A break of that resistance would signal that the larger correction may have already finished back at the $8.36 low seen in 2024. This would be a trigger to consider bullish positions, such as call debit spreads, to capture a potential new uptrend.
In the immediate weeks, the battleground is the support zone between $11.86 and $10.52. As long as buyers defend this area, short-term bullish plays have a chance, but we are cautious given the latest October 2025 auto sales data showed a 2% decline year-over-year. A break below this support, especially below $10.52, would significantly increase the odds of retesting the $8.36 low and strengthen the case for holding bearish positions.
