Silver (XAG/USD) faces pressure for the third straight day, following US President Donald Trump’s two-week pause before deciding on US involvement in the Iran–Israel situation. This decision has reduced geopolitical risk premiums that boosted safe-haven demand for metals, leading market participants to reassess their positions.

Silver is currently trading around $36.00 in the US market, recovering from an intraday low of $35.51 and finding some support near its 100-period Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. Technically, the metal indicates weakness in its recent uptrend, slipping below its rising channel, suggesting a potential further pullback.

Presently, Silver remains above the 100-period moving average around $35.65, serving as a support level. The Relative Strength Index is showing a bearish divergence, and the Rate of Change is negative, confirming a loss in upward momentum and opening the possibility for a broader correction.

For Silver to regain upward momentum, it would need to move decisively above $36.50, aiming for resistance between $37.00 and $37.30. On the downside, failure to hold above the 100-period MA and a drop below $35.50 could lead to increased selling pressure, targeting support at $35.00 and $34.50.

As we move into a fresh trading week, the retreat in silver reflects more than a simple pause; rather, it points to a cooling of the emotionally charged risk narrative that had recently lifted the metal higher. The dip in safe-haven appetite follows a key political postponement that has momentarily calmed previously heightened tensions in the Middle East. What this means in practice is that the immediate urgency to seek out traditional hedges, such as metals, has softened. This is not a surprise when global risk filters readjust abruptly.

Technically speaking, silver’s inability to hold its gains above $36.50 will be watched closely over the next several sessions. We notice that the metal has breached its short-term ascending channel, a structure that provided some scaffolding for bulls through the earlier part of the rally. While this breach does not seal the fate of the trend, it’s now clear that buying momentum has waned over the past few sessions.

Indicators offer little comfort. The relative strength index (RSI), showing divergence from recent price highs, signals caution. When asset prices move higher but the RSI lags or weakens, historically the probability of a downside reaction increases. Added to that, the Rate of Change (ROC) tilting into negative territory stands as another red flag, showing that the pace of upward movement has not only slowed but begun to reverse.

Immediate support remains in the area of $35.65, aligned with the 100-period moving average on the four-hour timeframe. This level held during the initial wave of selling, but if violated, it may not hold up on a second visit. Should price action dip below $35.50 again and struggle to reclaim it swiftly, we should be on alert for a test of $35.00 — and potentially $34.50 — particularly if external risk sentiment continues to stabilise.

On the flip side, reclaiming $36.50 with conviction would challenge the narrative that silver is fading. For that to happen, there would need to be persistence of bid interest throughout the New York and Asian sessions, not just momentary spikes. Traders, in this context, should look for upticks in volume and confirmation from broader commodity indices or even ETF flows before committing to directional bias.

From our vantage point, any short-volatility exposure must be managed tightly, especially given how reactive silver tends to be when sudden geopolitical shifts emerge. The path of least resistance currently leans lower, unless fresh catalysts emerge to reintroduce urgency into the safe-haven trade, or unless US dollar dynamics begin to shift meaningfully.

In positioning ourselves, risk must be scaled appropriately. We prefer watching price behave around $35.65 and $36.50 rather than anticipating sharp moves. Patience will matter more here than aggression, particularly as markets continue to digest what the recent political pause implies across other asset classes.