A chart tracking the ratio between Large Cap Growth and Large Cap Value, using the SPDR S&P 500 Growth (SPYG) and SPDR S&P 500 Value (SPYV) ETFs, shows growth often leads the market up or down. On April 24, the ratio crossed two critical moving averages, which indicated growth taking the lead. This crossing was further reinforced by the moving average lines crossing on May 7, suggesting a potentially longer market run led by growth.

The Gold ETF (GLD) appeared to have reached a peak around April 21, with an attempted higher-high on May 6 that fell short. Analysis over ten years highlights a tendency for this ETF to peak between April 18 and 20. The gold market may face challenges if historical patterns hold, as recent peaks indicate a seasonal end for this asset.

Sector Trends Analysis

Health Care (XLV) continues to show weakness, down by -2.35%, with multiple indicators suggesting a negative trend. In contrast, sectors with confirmed positive trends include XLY, XLK, XLI, XLF, XLE, and XLC. Despite a positive day for the S&P 500, only three sectors showed gains, indicating the market movement was narrow.

This recent shift in the relative strength between high-growth and value-oriented equities is telling. We’re tracking the ratio between SPYG and SPYV, which historically offers early signals on market directionality. The crossover on 24 April, followed by the confirming moving average intersection on 7 May, hints at a more durable rotation into growth equities. It’s not simply a short bounce. Instead, it implies broader participation by investors in sectors typically characterised by rapid revenue expansion and higher price-to-earnings multiples. In our view, this suggests that portfolios tilted toward these growth exposures may experience extended relative strength—particularly where valuations remain supported by earnings resilience or aggressive revisions.

The gold ETF’s pattern over the past decade is not just data in hindsight—it guides current positioning. Recent price action, with a failed attempt to set a fresh high on 6 May, lines up neatly with the decade-long tendency to top in the third week of April. The market’s memory here reflects both macro setup and seasonal hedging demand. When resistance reappears around the same timeframe annually, and momentum begins to wane shortly thereafter, it’s generally useful to anticipate a moderation in gains. We’ve seen this hesitation translate into broad profit-taking in similar years. It’s not a matter of whether gold offers long-term value, but rather whether upside potential is limited in the near term. Given this April inflection point has held up again this year, holding tight to long-duration gold exposures may come with diminishing returns for now.

Sectors Driving Strength

What’s happening in Health Care, measured through XLV, continues to reflect deeper weakness rather than short-term variance. The negative -2.35% performance isn’t a one-off; instead, the weight of trend-based indicators—volume pressure, bearish divergences, and soft breadth—build a case against any near-term reversion higher. We’ve seen this before: when defensive sectors lose pace even during broader market relief rallies, it often reveals underlying capital outflows. Unless sentiment shifts materially or earnings rerate positively, underperformance can persist longer than one might expect.

In contrast, the list of sectors continuing to drive strength—namely consumer discretionary, technology, industrials, financials, energy, and communication services—offers key directionality. These are not subtly gaining ground. Rather, they show consistent trend confirmation, which implies more than a temporary rise. The strong alignment with growing economic confidence or positioning rotations contributes to stability in those sector moves. This also underlines the narrow breadth of the recent rally, where three sectors alone carried the S&P 500. That’s not uncommon, but it signals that traders reliant on broad-based participation may need to adjust expectations.

When market gains hinge on a thin group of sectors, it requires us to narrow focus, identify continuation patterns, and reassess sectors that lag. The broader index may rise, but if participation remains weak underneath—as we’ve just seen—it creates a less forgiving environment for indiscriminate buying. It’s a trader’s market, and one that demands focus on those sectors confirming trend direction, while keeping rotation risk top of mind.

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