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Xeris Biopharma reported break-even quarterly earnings per share against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01, improving from a loss of $0.06 per share a year prior. This resulted in an earnings surprise of -100%, while the previous quarter saw a surprise of +66.67%.
For the quarter ended September 2025, Xeris Biopharma reported revenues of $74.38 million, which exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.04%. This was an increase from the previous year’s revenue of $54.27 million.
Since the start of the year, Xeris Biopharma shares have risen by approximately 191.2%, compared to the S&P 500’s increase of 15.6%. Ahead of this earnings release, estimate revisions for the company were unfavourable, leading to a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock.
The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.05 on revenues of $81.18 million and -$0.01 on $287.18 million for the current fiscal year. Another industry peer, Assertio, expects to report a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share, marking a year-over-year change of -166.7%, with expected revenues of $26.9 million, down 7.9% from the previous year.
The recent earnings report for Xeris Biopharma presents a mixed signal for us, with a narrow miss on earnings per share but a beat on revenue. The break-even result, against a projection of a one-cent profit, has created uncertainty following the stock’s massive 191% run-up this year. Implied volatility for XERS options is currently elevated, reflecting market anticipation of a significant price move in the coming days.
For those of us leaning bearish, the earnings miss could be the catalyst that triggers a correction. Historically, after such a massive run-up like the one we’ve seen in 2025, even a minor disappointment can spark significant profit-taking. Purchasing put options with strike prices 5-10% below the current market price could be a way to capitalize on a potential downturn, especially if management guidance on the earnings call is cautious.
On the other hand, the strong 37% year-over-year revenue growth provides a compelling bullish counter-argument. This top-line strength suggests solid underlying demand for the company’s products, which could overshadow the minor earnings miss. Selling cash-secured puts is an attractive strategy to collect premium from the heightened volatility, based on the view that strong sales will limit any significant drop in the stock price.
Given the binary nature of the upcoming management commentary, a non-directional strategy is also warranted. We saw a similar setup with Assertio (ASRT) back in its Q1 2025 report, where the stock moved over 15% after its earnings call. Implementing a long straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option, would allow a trader to profit from a large price swing in either direction following the call.
