Insights 
VT 
UOB Group’s FX analysts note that the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) shows upward momentum. For this trend to continue, the USD must close above 153.00.
Currently, the USD is trading in a range, spanning between 152.20 and 153.05. Recently, it moved between 152.54 and 153.25, closing slightly higher at 152.87, a mere 0.01% increase.
Emerging Upward Momentum
Analysis from last Friday indicated that upward momentum is emerging. However, progress is contingent on the USD closing above 153.00 for a sustained rise. Until this level is reached, the strong support level remains at 152.00, and analysts prefer to adopt a cautious stance.
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With upward momentum building, we see USD/JPY is testing a critical point. A sustained move depends entirely on the pair closing above the 153.00 level. For now, the market is trapped in a tight range, and traders should remain cautious until a clear breakout occurs.
The fundamental picture supports a stronger dollar, making a break higher plausible. Recent US CPI data from earlier this month in October 2025 showed core inflation holding firm at 3.5%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve. This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan, which has maintained its ultra-low interest rate policy.
Strategies And Market Reactions
We must also consider the risk of intervention, as we saw back in 2022 when the pair first breached 150. Japanese officials have increased their verbal warnings, causing the market to hesitate around these levels. This history suggests that even if 153.00 is breached, the move could be met with swift action from Tokyo.
For those anticipating a breakout above 153.00, buying call options offers a defined-risk way to capture potential upside. One-month implied volatility has already crept up to around 9.5%, showing the market is pricing in a bigger move. A break could be sharp, especially as positioning data shows large speculative bets against the yen.
If the pair fails to break 153.00 and remains range-bound, selling option strangles or setting up iron condors could be viable strategies to profit from low volatility. However, a break below our strong support at 152.00 would invalidate the current upward bias. In that scenario, put options would become attractive to play for a deeper correction.
Key data to watch in the coming weeks will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October. A strong jobs number could be the catalyst that finally pushes the dollar through the 153.00 resistance. We will be watching that release and any shifts in language from Japanese policymakers very closely.
