Following U.S.-Iran tensions, S&P 500 futures showed bullish signs, suggesting possible market recovery opportunities

    by VT Markets
    /
    Jun 23, 2025

    S&P 500 Futures are trading with a bullish momentum above the VWAP according to today’s analysis from tradeCompass. Bullish targets are noted above 5,991, while bearish scenarios unfold below 5,982, with the current price around 6,000.

    The geopolitical tensions following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities initially caused a market gap, but S&P 500 E-mini Futures recovered sharply by 49 points to close above 6,000. Analysts anticipate markets might expect a measured Iranian response rather than an escalation.

    Bullish Strategy

    The bullish strategy involves entering the market slightly above 6,000 or on a pullback to 5,997.25, with partial profit targets set at several levels including 6,008 and 6,100. Bearish scenarios prepare to engage below 5,982, with targets such as 5,974 and 5,935.

    Key levels such as VWAP, POC, VAH, and VAL guide the market’s structural and psychological landscape. These help identify market sentiment as bullish or bearish, guiding traders on when to take profits or cut losses. The tradeCompass strategy offers structured guidance to traders, focusing on risk management and market adaptation amidst news-driven volatility.

    The current momentum in S&P 500 Futures, as laid out, shows a market that’s pushing upward with conviction, particularly as it’s sustained activity above the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)—a key reference for short-term trader bias. A bounce from early turmoil sparked by American military action suggests scepticism around further escalation. Early reactions were swift and pronounced, but the recovery hints at confidence or, perhaps, a belief among participants that the worst of the headline shock may have passed.


    Now, the article described a set of price points traders are monitoring. Think of these like road signs. Above one number? The view is bullish. Below a different threshold? It’s time to prepare for potential setbacks. These aren’t arbitrary; they signal appetite—for risk, for movement, for exposure.

    Pricing Strategy

    The suggested entries and exits are there to support discipline. For instance, taking positions just above 6,000, or waiting for a retracement into the mid-to-high 5,990s, isn’t just about being right—it’s about not being early, or worse, wrong for too long. There’s a preference for incremental gains—locking in partial profits before aiming higher. This levelled approach, rooted in patterns and structure, gives us benchmarks not just for potential but for control.

    On the downside, the caution zones sit below 5,982. The measured descent allows room for re-entry, exits, or at the very least, side-lining emotion. In contrast to mere reaction, there’s planning. Targets at 5,974 and 5,935 represent stages where sellers could find reinforcement, or where buyers may attempt to step back in.

    The layers mentioned—VWAP, POC, VAH, and VAL—aren’t just technical terms. They’re reference points that show where trading interest has clustered. When we see price holding above a Value Area High (VAH), for instance, we interpret it as strength. Dipping towards the Value Area Low (VAL), on the other hand, can indicate fatigue or rejection. These levels provide a way to read the market’s memory, a kind of fingerprint of where money has committed recently.

    We approach volatility often not by predicting it, but by learning how to ride through it. The structure outlined doesn’t chase headlines—it reacts with purpose. The outlined method avoids big risks by stepping in at relatively safe points, mapping reactions before they happen.

    In the coming sessions, we’ll likely observe market participants revisiting some of these bars, particularly if geopolitical developments resurface. There’s no guesswork here—levels are set based on behaviour. Our decisions hinge not on what we’d like to see but what the price is doing relative to those metrics.

    As we move through this week and next, the tempo may reset, but traders with a plan anchored to structural levels are better set to adapt. If price remains comfortably above the discussed pillars, continuation is favoured. Should this shift, particularly with external news acting as the shove, the trade setups will adjust accordingly.

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