Insights 
VT 
American Express (AXP) recently posted strong fourth-quarter results, with card member spending and net interest income both increasing. The company expects revenue growth of 8-10% in the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, AXP announced a 17% increase in its quarterly dividend. The company is focusing on technology, customer engagement, and global expansion to maintain this growth, particularly among millennials and Gen Z users.
Current Analysts Opinions
Expert opinions on AXP’s short-term future are varied; 16 out of 26 analysts recommend holding the stock, while eight suggest buying. The average price target is $319.95, which is slightly lower than the current price, suggesting limited gains. Nonetheless, predictions have high estimates reaching $394. AXP’s recent market performance saw it reach a peak of 326.27 before experiencing a downturn and then rebounding, forming wave patterns that suggest potential for future growth.
The market recently confirmed AXP’s transition into wave ((1)) of V, implying renewed bullish momentum. An impulsive chart pattern could suggest a rise toward the 351.70–392.36 range. Analysts are keeping an eye on the Elliott structure to determine the best exit points ahead of potential corrections. Economic uncertainty continues with the current federal government shutdown adding to the unpredictability.
We see that American Express has broken above its previous high of $326.27, which confirms that the corrective wave IV that began earlier in 2025 has likely ended. The current price action appears to be the start of the final major upward move, targeting a range between $351.70 and $392.36. This suggests that traders can consider near-term bullish positions, such as buying call options or implementing bull call spreads, to capitalize on this expected ascent.
However, the ongoing federal government shutdown, which started on October 1st, creates a layer of significant market risk. We know from historical events, such as the 16-day shutdown in October 2013 which saw the VIX volatility index jump over 40%, that prolonged political uncertainty can rapidly increase option premiums. This elevated volatility makes derivative strategies more expensive and underscores the need for careful risk management in the coming weeks.
Potential Macroeconomic Impacts
This macroeconomic pressure could directly impact AXP’s core business, which relies heavily on strong consumer sentiment and spending. Recent third-quarter data showed that while spending among premium cardholders remained robust, growth has moderated slightly from the highs we saw in the first half of 2025. A lengthy shutdown could erode consumer confidence further, potentially creating a headwind against the stock’s bullish technical momentum.
It is critical to remember that the current rally is viewed as the final leg, Wave V, of a much larger cycle. This implies that once the target zone is reached, a substantial and prolonged correction is expected to follow. Therefore, any bullish positions should be managed with a clear exit strategy in mind, as the risk of a major trend reversal will increase significantly as the price approaches the upper end of the $392.36 target.
As the stock pushes toward the $351.70 level and beyond, traders should begin to consider hedging strategies or preparing for a reversal. Buying long-dated put options could serve as a hedge against existing long positions or as a speculative play on the major correction expected to follow this final wave. The key will be to watch for signs of exhaustion as the price enters the upper target zone.
The structure of this final ascent will provide crucial clues for timing an exit. If the rally is sharp and impulsive, we may see a small pullback before one last push, whereas a choppy, overlapping advance could signal a diagonal pattern, indicating the top is very near. Given the combination of a potential market top and shutdown-related uncertainty, strategies that benefit from a sharp price move in either direction, such as a long straddle, could also be considered.
