Insights 
VT 
The S&P 500 has benefited from positive growth drivers and easing financial conditions. With expansionary fiscal policies and potential rate cuts, the general trend remains upward. However, a hawkish repricing in interest rates could pose a risk to the current trend.
Upcoming Data Releases
In the coming weeks, crucial data releases include the ISM PMIs, the US NFP, and the US CPI. These will impact interest rates expectations and thus influence the S&P 500’s movement. Soft inflation and favourable labour data are needed to sustain the trend, as the market anticipates three rate cuts by year-end.
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 consistently reaches new all-time highs. Buyers have an attractive risk-to-reward setup at the previous high near 6,160 to support the uptrend. Sellers look for a drop towards the 6,000 level for a bearish opportunity.
The 4-hour chart displays an upward trendline guiding the uptrend. Dip-buyers expect to capitalise on any pullbacks to continue the rally, while sellers aim for a break below the support. In the 1-hour timeframe, buyers support the trendline for further highs, whilst sellers seek a move below 6,160 for a pullback.
Analysis of Upcoming Data Impact
Upcoming data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Job Openings, ADP data, and US NFP.
We have been moving within a strong directional bias, largely fuelled by supportive policy measures and relatively calm market conditions. The currently optimistic environment has stemmed from looser financial constraints, combined with stimulus from public spending. For now, the prevailing theme has been upward momentum—with price consistently reflecting this via fresh peaks in the main equity index.
That said, not everything points upwards indefinitely. Recent adjustments in interest rate expectations—tied closely to macroeconomic prints—can lead to abrupt shifts in direction. Powell’s latest tone, for example, has left the door open for tighter conditions if needed, depending wholly on how incoming data unfolds. Traders have begun re-evaluating the narrative around rate easings and are no longer fully convinced about the likelihood or timing of the anticipated three cuts this year.
To put it plainly, the next stretch of trading days might not be as straightforward. With the US ISM print and jobs data including the nonfarm payrolls just ahead, we’ll need to watch bond yields closely. A soft inflation reading is needed to confirm disinflation remains intact, but labour data must also cooperate. If job growth stays healthy without reigniting wage pressures, then rate expectations will remain anchored in a way that supports equity longs. However, anything outside those bounds—and we might be looking at re-entry levels downward, fast.
From a short-term trading perspective, technical levels are clearly marked. On the daily, prices have stayed comfortably above prior resistance which acted as a barrier before. Now, those same levels have become supports. For those plotting opportunities, the area near 6,160 on the index is not just a number but a reference point tying together past breakout momentum, risk structures, and buying interest. This reference can help define invalidation for any long bias. A clean failure to hold there introduces room for a deeper retracement.
Now zooming in—on the four-hour chart, we’re following a structure that remains upwardly guided by a trendline. Minor dips towards that trendline have drawn in liquidity as buyers continue to defend higher lows. If the price cleanly breaks beneath and closes below those levels, that should not be shrugged off. Any breach of structure there would invalidate the prior impulse and open the door for extended downside activity.
On the one-hour timeframe, the shorter-term outlook mirrors that mid-term view. Strong positioning above the previous area of resistance is helping the bulls, while any sustained pauses around these zones could be dismissed as temporary consolidations. But if the 6,160 level gives way before major data hits, the sellers have a foundation.
What comes next in terms of trade setups will heavily depend on how we react to the data. With the US manufacturing PMI and job openings numbers on deck, followed by ADP and the main employment report, we have a full calendar. All of this has a direct feedback loop into interest rate trading, and, by extension, equity positioning. Traders need to be ready to pivot positions quickly once these are published. With volatility expected to pick up around these releases, options markets may also present tighter corridors than usual, with implied moves trading above realised levels.
We view strength early in the week as being data-sensitive. If equities rip higher without confirmation from rates or a positive bounce in other macro assets, we would have to treat that with caution. Any quiet revaluations in the US Treasury market might offer better insights than headline-focused trading alone. You’ll want to be especially attentive to intraday trend reversals ahead of payrolls, as they may mark positioning burns or stops resetting rather than sustained changes in conviction.
