Insights 
VT 
The US dollar strengthened after nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 147,000 jobs added compared to the estimated 110,000. The unemployment rate improved to 4.1% from 4.3%, though average hourly earnings were below forecasts, rising only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year.
A notable portion of the overall job gains—73,000—were due to government hiring at state and local levels.
Currency Pairs Reactions
For currency pairs, the EURUSD broke below its 100-hour moving average to reach a session low of 1.17163. This move suggests a bearish tone, with resistance seen at 1.1746 and 1.17529.
USDJPY surged past both 100- and 200-hour moving averages, settling around 145.20 with resistance targets at 145.47 and 145.76. The pair shows a strong bullish trend if it stays above the 144.56 level.
GBPUSD fell below key technical levels, finding support at 1.35786. Resistance lies between 1.3615 and 1.3633, with further downside focus near 1.35292.
USDCHF pushed past the 100-hour moving average and last week’s low, with resistance at the 0.8002 level and support near 0.7957. A break above 0.8000 would favour buyers significantly.
What we’re seeing in these moves is a market reacting more to the headline beat in job creation than to the wage data, which came in softer. While the US added more roles than expected, a large slice of that came from public sector employment rather than private hiring. That makes the employment strength look slightly less broad-based than it seems at first glance. Additionally, the sluggish growth in wages points to subdued inflation pressure from the labour market side, which may temper expectations for rapid interest rate hikes.
Price movements in the major dollar pairs reflect this tension. On one hand, better unemployment figures reinforce confidence in the broader economy. On the other, wage stagnation leaves enough room for policymakers to hold off when it comes to tightening. The net impact? A short-term push higher for the dollar, but with uneven conviction behind it.
Market Implications and Positioning
Now, looking at the broader implications for positioning, the euro slipped quite decisively once it edged below that 100-hour moving average. The drop to 1.17163 can’t be ignored — this level was taken out rather cleanly, indicating a desire to test lower zones. The road back up won’t be easy now, not with sellers showing up near the 1.1750 pocket. A clean rise back above these resistance points would be needed to suggest any kind of retest of prior sessions’ highs.
Against the yen, dollar buyers have managed to muscle past the key moving averages, landing in an area that adds weight to a bullish follow-through. The reaction around the 145.47 level will tell us whether their momentum holds, or whether this run starts to stall. It’s not especially common to see both moving averages upended without some profit-taking, so this deserves extra attention.
Sterling looked vulnerable as it lost its footing below support. It found an initial floor, but nothing about the current formation looks settled. The next layer of support stands at 1.35292, and that’s where attention will likely shift if upward attempts are rejected between 1.3615 and 1.3633. Signals from broader risk sentiment could weigh more here, especially if wage data or inflation signals from the UK create divergence.
As for the franc, movement was firm and fairly clear-eyed. A lurk around the 0.8000 region has been brewing for a few sessions now. The breach above the trend markers, paired with proximity to resistance, positions this cross in an aggressive posture. Buyers are tilted to reassert control if momentum is sustained north of 0.8002. That said, a snap back below 0.7957 would throw cold water on that. We watch the reaction near the high with interest.
In practical terms, we now have a situation where reaction to macro data has added a directional lean across each pair. Some are behaving tightly in line with technicals — with moving averages and horizontal levels doing the job — while others feel more fluid in direction. What matters from here is how the next set of catalysts confirm or challenge these early-week themes.
Trading setups need to reflect a more tactical feel. When a report produces mixed inputs — like this one — it’s wiser to expect saves and reversals rather than one-sided extensions. We’d rather not be too far above resistance without confirmation, nor too committed to breakdowns while charts remain in range.
