US markets, including Nasdaq, rose following a US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and gained US control over Venezuela’s oil sector. The energy sector led these gains due to the geopolitical risk, with tech stocks on the Nasdaq remaining stable.
Despite the geopolitical events, the Nasdaq 100 and broader US indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs. This indicates confidence in tech and cyclical sectors, with growth drivers in tech still strong.
Chevron Stock Increases
Chevron saw one of the most notable stock increases, also benefiting ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips due to potential advantages in Venezuelan assets. Oilfield services and refiners rose, anticipating increased Venezuelan output benefiting refining margins.
While gold and the US dollar saw slight increases, the event added uncertainty and controversy globally. The US strategy on Venezuelan oil suggests a shift towards securing energy supply, creating a new model for how private companies might interact with sovereign resources.
The Nasdaq maintained key support levels, hinting at potential gains if tech earnings remain firm. However, any heightened geopolitical tensions could cause a shift away from growth stocks, affecting the Nasdaq’s performance.
Given the market’s risk-on reaction to the U.S. securing Venezuelan oil assets, we should consider bullish positions in the energy sector. Call options on integrated majors like Chevron (CVX) and oilfield service companies like SLB are attractive. These trades capitalize on the immediate positive sentiment and the long-term potential of rebuilding Venezuela’s infrastructure.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures
This move is significant, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures now testing the $95 per barrel mark, a level not seen since the supply shocks of 2024. Venezuela’s oil production, which we saw fall below 800,000 barrels per day last year, has significant room to grow and could reshape global supply chains. This provides a strong fundamental tailwind for energy equities for the foreseeable future.
In the derivatives market, we’ve seen implied volatility on energy names like Chevron jump over 35% in recent sessions, making options more expensive. Therefore, traders could use bull call spreads to define risk and lower the entry cost for a bullish directional bet. Selling cash-secured puts is another viable strategy for those willing to acquire shares at a lower price if the initial rally fades.
While tech stocks on the Nasdaq have held up, the elevated geopolitical risk warrants a hedge against a sudden sentiment shift. We should consider buying protective puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) to guard against a rotation out of growth stocks. This provides a relatively cheap insurance policy if the international response to the Venezuela situation turns negative.
Overall market fear, as measured by the VIX, is holding stubbornly above 18, well off the lows we saw in late 2025. This suggests underlying tension despite the equity rally. Buying VIX call options offers a direct hedge against a broad market downturn or a sudden escalation of geopolitical conflict.
The rebuild of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure will be a multi-year process, not a short-term fix. This suggests that longer-dated call options, or LEAPS, on service providers like Halliburton (HAL) could be an effective way to play the long game. This contrasts with short-term futures trades on crude oil, which will be more sensitive to immediate headlines.
