Insights 
VT 
The Swiss Franc Outlook
The Swiss Franc (CHF) may benefit from decreased expectations of policy easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB expresses confidence in its existing monetary measures, dismissing negative rate returns, while maintaining an expansionary policy stance.
As a prominent global currency, the CHF’s value is shaped by Switzerland’s economic health and SNB actions. Safe-haven status enhances its appeal during market tumult. The Swiss economy’s reliance on the Eurozone underpins a high correlation between the CHF and Euro (EUR).
Macroeconomic stability in Europe is vital for CHF valuation. The Swiss economy’s growth, inflation, and central bank reserves significantly influence CHF fluctuations alongside Eurozone conditions.
Current USD/CHF Dynamics
We are looking at a very different picture for USD/CHF today, October 27, 2025, compared to the environment described in this analysis. Back then, the pair traded below 0.8000 amidst hopes of US-China trade deals and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Today, the pair is trading around 0.9120, reflecting a fundamental shift in central bank policy over the past several years.
The analysis from that time correctly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, but it couldn’t foresee the inflationary surge that followed. In response, we saw the Fed embark on an aggressive hiking cycle that peaked with a Fed Funds rate of 5.50% in 2023, and it currently stands at 4.75%. Recent US CPI data for September 2025 came in at a stubborn 2.8%, suggesting the Fed has little room to consider easing policy in the near term.
On the other side, the Swiss National Bank’s dismissal of further easing proved to be a major turning point. The SNB was forced to exit its negative interest rate policy to combat inflation, raising its policy rate to the current 1.75%. This decisive action is a primary driver behind the Swiss Franc’s significant appreciation against the US Dollar since that period.
