Insights 
VT 
Technical Analysis Overview
S&P 500 Futures (ESM2025) exhibited a strong uptrend for the week of May 12–17, maintaining a consistent upward channel since a sharp gap higher on May 13. The price stayed above the VWAP mid-line, with major volume spikes turning the 5,845–5,860 zone into a new support area around 5,880–5,900.
Immediate resistance is set at 5,960, with further barriers at 5,969, 5,981, and 6,000. If the uptrend persists and the price breaks through 5,960, targets include 5,981 and potentially 6,000. Conversely, failure to close above 5,960 could lead to declines toward 5,943 and a retest of the VWAP mid-line.
In a bullish scenario, a sustained move above 5,960 would push prices toward higher resistance zones, while staying within the channel encourages buying during dips. In contrast, rejection around 5,960 could prompt a swing downward, with losses accumulating if the price drops below key support levels, such as the VWAP band.
For traders, a long position is considered if 5,960 is broken, with a short position advisable if the level is rejected. Risk management is crucial with defined stop-loss and position sizing strategies.
Decision Making and Risk Management
What we’ve seen in the past several sessions from S&P 500 futures—the ESM2025 contract—has been a firm push upward, anchored by a strong technical foundation that’s held since the price gapped higher at the start of the week. That initial jump, particularly on 13 May, injected volume and confidence into the move, effectively establishing a base of support around the 5,880 to 5,900 range. Activity around 5,845 to 5,860 added confirmation that the market was comfortable holding these levels, with higher trading volumes carving out what appears to now be a dependable floor.
Throughout the week, prices hugged the upper section of an upward trading channel and consistently held above the VWAP mid-line—a strong indicator of ongoing momentum from institutional order flow. This sustained positioning above the volume-weighted average price means that buying activity has remained dominant and that sellers have, so far, failed to apply pressure consistently enough to reverse the move.
As of now, the immediate resistance level stands at 5,960. This is not just a price barrier; it represents a potential decision point. Current price action suggests that if futures manage to push cleanly above it—and, importantly, maintain that level intraday or on a closing basis—then the door opens to targets at 5,981 and then a psychological test at 6,000. These are not arbitrary numbers; they are structurally relevant based on prior swing highs and short-term trading projections. That means any break above 5,960 isn’t just about exuberance, it’s about a pattern continuing with conviction.
However, if futures fail to settle above 5,960 despite testing it, it could imply that there’s exhaustion, at least temporarily. A pullback could then trigger, guiding price down to 5,943 and possibly setting the stage for a return to the VWAP mid-level, which currently serves as dynamic support within the channel. If that level gets breached, it points to a shifting dynamic in short-term sentiment and would raise the likelihood of a deeper retracement through previous support zones.
Barriers like these are best viewed as inflection points, rather than pivots for all-in positioning. This is where planning comes before participation. Taking trades only when prices commit convincingly—either through volume expansion or strong candle closes—reduces the likelihood of being caught in whipsaw moves.
When making decisions next week, we favour what the structure is saying. So if the 5,960 level breaks convincingly, we focus on long setups with stops placed just below invalidation zones, ideally under short-term support or the VWAP channel, to avoid being caught in intraday noise. But if there’s weakness and 5,960 is firmly rejected, then the move lower may suggest an opportunity the other way. In that case, short exposures should come with a clear exit plan in case of a reversal, particularly near the lower bounds of support zones, where previous buying stepped in.
Position sizing should always reflect the risk being taken. Larger stops for wider volatility might mean smaller overall positions, while tighter ranges may permit slightly more aggressive sizing—but never beyond what’s manageable. Using the VWAP bands to gauge bias remains helpful, but it’s the confluence of price action, volume, and dynamic levels like these that typically deliver the most clarity in these setups.
Generally, when price stays contained within an ascending channel and remains above VWAP, that supports buying into weakness—but only when retracements align with volume support and structure. Risk gets elevated when emotions take over, so the smarter approach has always been to wait for the setup, trust the process, and define what would invalidate your position before clicking anything.
We’ll continue tracking volume shifts and how price reacts around resistance—watching closely whether momentum fails or carries beyond the 5,960 level into that 5,981 to 6,000 zone. Reaction there will tell us more than forecasts will.
