The EUR/CHF pair stabilises following a bullish opening, currently trading near 0.9264 after touching an 11-month low of 0.9205. This calm persists as traders await key Eurozone economic data and the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.

The ECB is expected to keep its main refinancing rate steady at 2.00%, given recent stable inflation and positive PMI figures. The interest-rate swap market assigns a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut within the next year, with expectations of the rate bottoming at 1.75%.

Technical Analysis Overview

Technical analysis shows resistance near 0.9280, with a potential rise to 0.9350-0.9400 if surpassed. The RSI is at 41, indicating a mild recovery from oversold levels, while the MACD shows weakening downside momentum. In Switzerland, the ZEW Survey for October, due on Wednesday, is the main economic event, reflecting sentiments on the Swiss economy.

The ECB main refinancing operations rate, one of the three key rates, influences the Euro’s strength. Adjustments aim to control inflation, affecting the currency’s appeal for foreign investments. The next announcement is set for 30th October 2025.

As of today, October 27, 2025, we are seeing EUR/CHF trade in a tight range around 0.9264, showing clear hesitation from the market. This sideways movement comes after the pair touched an 11-month low last week, and traders are now waiting for a catalyst. The contracting Bollinger Bands confirm this period of low volatility, which often precedes a significant price move.

ECB Decision and Market Implications

The main event we are all watching is the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision this Thursday, October 30. The market widely expects the rate to be held at 2.00%, but the real focus will be on the ECB’s tone regarding future policy. With Eurozone inflation in September 2025 having registered at a stubborn 2.3%, slightly above target, any hawkish language could send the Euro higher.

Given this uncertainty, we see an opportunity in options strategies that profit from a spike in volatility. Buying a straddle, which involves purchasing both a call and a put option at the same strike price, could be an effective way to trade the ECB announcement. This position will be profitable if EUR/CHF makes a sharp move in either direction following the release.

From a technical standpoint, the key level to watch is the 0.9280 resistance zone. As long as we remain below it, the path of least resistance is downwards, and we might consider buying put options to target a retest of the 0.9210 lows. This approach provides a defined risk if the ECB surprises with a more aggressive stance on inflation, pushing the pair upwards.

Historically, we’ve seen the Swiss Franc act as a safe-haven asset during times of European economic uncertainty, a pattern observed during the 2022 energy crisis. Should the Eurozone GDP data on Thursday disappoint forecasts of 0.1% growth, it could reinforce this dynamic and pressure the EUR/CHF pair. A break below last week’s low could trigger further selling.

Conversely, a sustained daily close above 0.9280 would signal that the recent bearish momentum is fading. In that scenario, we would shift our bias and look to establish long positions, perhaps through bull call spreads. This would position us to capitalize on a potential recovery towards the 0.9350-0.9400 area.

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