Insights 
VT 
Japan’s current account showed a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of ¥4,483.3 billion in September. This figure exceeded the expected ¥2,468 billion, indicating a better-than-anticipated economic performance.
In currency markets, the Australian Dollar held losses while the NZD/USD softened below 0.5650. The USD/CAD rebounded toward 1.4050, influenced by US government shutdown developments.
Japanese Yen Weakness
The Japanese Yen experienced weakness amid Bank of Japan rate hike uncertainties. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two-year inflation expectations were reported at 2.28% quarter-on-quarter for Q4 2025.
The EUR/USD traded around 1.1560, with attention on the US political scene. GBP/USD hovered below 1.32 as UK employment data approached.
Gold maintained its position near $4,150, buoyed by anticipated US rate cuts and a weaker Dollar. In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple extended their recovery due to improving market sentiment.
Coinbase has introduced a new platform for purchasing digital tokens pre-listing. The Layer-1 network Monad plans to offer its token on November 17.
Volatility In Upcoming Weeks
Given the conflicting signals in the market, we see volatility as the main theme for the coming weeks. The resolution of the US government shutdown should strengthen the dollar, but markets are also pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 78% chance of a cut, especially after last month’s Core CPI figure came in at a subdued 2.1% year-over-year.
For those watching the Japanese yen, the situation is complex. Japan’s massive current account surplus of ¥4.48 trillion in September is a strong bullish signal for the currency. However, this is being offset by uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s willingness to raise rates, a dynamic we haven’t seen since the great yen weakness of 2023-2024.
Gold is holding near a high of $4,150, which is nearly double its price from just a few years ago. This price is heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve actually following through with rate cuts. A risk-defined strategy, such as buying a bull call spread on gold futures, could capture further upside while protecting against a sharp reversal if the Fed’s tone changes.
The crypto market is showing signs of renewed life ahead of a new token sale on Coinbase scheduled for November 17. Recent industry data shows digital asset investment products have seen inflows for seven consecutive weeks, totaling over $1 billion. This suggests we could use short-dated call options on Bitcoin or Ethereum to trade the positive sentiment leading into that event.
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s survey showing two-year inflation expectations holding firm at 2.28%, the NZD may show strength against currencies with more dovish central banks. This is well within the RBNZ’s target band, suggesting they are in no rush to ease policy. This contrasts with the Australian dollar, which has been weak amid falling iron ore prices.
