The major European indices mostly ended the day lower, with the UK’s FTSE 100 rising by 0.23%. The German DAX fell by 0.06%, France’s CAC decreased by 0.34%, Spain’s Ibex dropped by 0.59%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB declined by 0.09%.

The EURUSD has reached new highs as European and London traders conclude their day, touching 1.14894. This narrowly exceeded an earlier high of 1.14886, while last week’s high extended to 1.14944.

eurusd ranging in previous swing area

On the daily chart, the EURUSD price is back within a previous swing area from 2021/2022, ranging between 1.1482 and 1.15158. The peak in April went beyond this area at 1.15726 but failed to maintain that level. Should it rise above the swing area again, it might aim for that April high of 1.15726.

What we’ve seen so far is a day where most major European equity markets ended somewhat lower, with only London’s primary stock index managing a mild uptick. Although small, that 0.23% increase may draw attention, especially as regional peers—particularly Spain and France—posted more pronounced losses. German and Italian markets experienced only modest declines by comparison.

In currency terms, the shared European currency has strengthened through today’s session. Near the close of European hours, the EUR/USD touched just shy of the 1.149 handle, poking above earlier highs by a sliver. What matters here isn’t just the rise itself, but where it’s happened. Price has returned to a zone on the chart that saw plenty of movement during 2021 and into early 2022. That range—fairly tight between roughly 1.1482 and 1.1516—acted as a turning point back then. It didn’t hold up in April of this year when price briefly ran farther to reach 1.15726, before quickly giving that back. That false break makes the current move a touch more interesting.

Momentum here, if it keeps ticking upward, could invite traders to target that old high from two months ago. But there’s work to be done before that becomes a fair assumption. We are, after all, back in a zone that historically draws in both buyers and sellers. Until price clears and holds beyond 1.1516 decisively, it will still feel like familiar resistance.

expected volatility around zone

From our view, this tells us a few things going into next week. Volatility around this zone should be expected. Anyone focused on short-term direction will need to keep stops tight and be ready to shift quickly. That means paying attention not only to price levels but also to whether volume comes in on moves above or below this range.

Scholz’s country seeing mild losses likely reflects how markets are digesting rate conditions and inflation readings. Whereas in Madrid, the sharper decline might suggest greater domestic concerns filtering through. Over in France, the 0.34% slip also follows a week of political uncertainty. And Milan’s slight pullback could be tied to the recent bond market jitters affecting Italian debt.

Taken together, we see equity pressure lining up with a firmer euro—not usually the pair you expect during risk-off sentiment. This could mean traders are positioning for changes in expected interest rate differentials, particularly given the recent remarks from central bank officials. Whether this euro strength continues depends a great deal on how the next few data releases line up.

We’re watching tomorrow closely. Any movement outside of the current euro range—or another rejection from today’s new high—will matter for those holding directional futures or options positions. The key now is to note not just the levels, but how price behaves around them. If the euro cannot break convincingly above 1.1516, sellers may try again. Meanwhile, the equity losses today suggest growing caution, which could shift capital into safer assets, perhaps playing into the currency shift we’re seeing.

It’s a moment that requires awareness rather than assumptions. Monitor reactions, not just levels. Anything less may leave late entries exposed to swift reversals.

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