There are a couple of focus points for EUR/USD, specifically at the 1.1650 and 1.1700 levels. Following the previous week’s gains, the dollar aims to stabilise in the new week, with the mentioned expiries potentially limiting price movement before they expire later in the day.

Around the 1.1700 level, there is assistance from near-term resistance provided by the 100-hour moving average, which is currently at 1.1707. As the week progresses, key US data is expected to be a main factor affecting price changes.

Trading Focus Areas

In practical terms, the earlier section highlights where traders are keeping their attention when it comes to the euro-dollar pair – mainly within tight zones around 1.1650 and 1.1700. Those levels are not random; they point to where option positions are clustered, and those expiries can act like speed bumps in the short run. Price might approach these zones, then pause or reverse, simply as a by-product of how option books are structured. That sort of resistance reduces volatility for a time but doesn’t eliminate risk – it merely delays it.

Adding more weight to this, the 100-hour moving average near 1.1707 coincides with these positions, giving us an extra technical layer. It’s like a guardrail. Price isn’t guaranteed to react to it, of course, but when it lines up with option expiry levels, the chance of hesitation or rejection rises. That means if price moves just above, we’d want to be alert for unnatural stickiness or quick reversals, especially in early trading hours when liquidity may not yet be firm.

We should also be aware of the broader schedule. US data releases are stacked up through the week. These aren’t just filler items on a calendar – the outcomes are likely to reshape expectations tied to rates and inflation. That isn’t abstract: if surprises hit, volatility ticks higher, and those tidy little expiry boundaries can break down faster than price modellers may anticipate.

Pricing Risk and Momentum

With that in mind, pricing risk more conservatively near option-heavy regions could be wise. One approach is to avoid leaning too hard into momentum, particularly if it builds just beneath either 1.1650 or 1.1700. Instead, pinpoint where the next liquidity pockets reside away from those zones – potentially below 1.1625 or above 1.1725 – and plan reaction strategies if price starts accelerating into those gaps.

We’ve seen it before – when momentum builds right around expiry boundaries and price stalls, it’s often a matter of waiting out the settlement time. Once the clock moves past it, movement resumes, often with more clarity. In that post-expiry window, traders with options off the table tend to reposition quickly, which can amplify trends that had been temporarily suppressed.

Keep in mind that current dollar strength hasn’t softened much yet. That strengthens the case for treating euro rallies with caution when they near technical resistance. It’s not about dismissing moves higher completely – just about recognising that following the price higher without a pullback faces not just resistance from the chart but also volume barriers from structural flows. Especially when sentiment is still broadly dollar-positive in the short term.

Where we go next will rely on how the data shifts expectations – not whether it surprises, but how it changes what people are betting on for the next few months. And when that narrative starts to change, it doesn’t do so quietly. For now, there’s no urgent need to throw capital behind breakout moves unless they clear expiry zones and hold. A more balanced posture offers us flexibility while things shake out.

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