The EUR/USD option expiry at the 1.1400 level may constrain price movements, with the 200-hour moving average at 1.1404 aiding in limiting downward pressure. Additionally, minor support at 1.1380 could keep price action subdued ahead of the US CPI report or developments from the US-China meeting.

For USD/JPY, the 145.00 level serves as a resistance area, as the pair has had difficulty surpassing this point on the daily chart over the past fortnight. This mark will likely act as a reinforcer due to the influence of expiries, with traders anticipating US inflation data and further trade news.

Euro Dollar Options Expiry

The options expiry near 1.1400 in the euro-dollar pair, combined with the 200-hour moving average sitting just above, suggests that these factors may work together to keep a cap on how far the pair is likely to move for the time being. With some trading support found around the 1.1380 mark, we’re not expecting much room for surprise swings—at least not until we get clarity from the upcoming US inflation figures or any major output following US-China discussions.

For the dollar-yen pair, the 145.00 level has been tested multiple times recently and held firm. That suggests market participants see it as a ceiling for now. There’s also the weight of expiring options reinforcing that area, making any move above it harder unless compelling fundamental data pushes sentiment into fresh territory. With the US inflation report on the calendar, this is set to be a key influence, especially if it causes investor positioning to shift rapidly.

Impact of Upcoming Inflation Data

So where does that leave us? In scenarios where options expiry lines up with major technical levels like a moving average, the market often becomes pinned—or at the very least, boxed in temporarily. As traders, we’ve seen this before where predictable ranges act as a holding pattern until a catalyst arrives. In this case, we’ll keep an eye on consumer price data. If inflation prints come in either notably above or below expectations, that might provide the momentum to challenge these zones.

Price action will likely stay compressed in both pairs until that data lands. Any unexpected remarks or policy tones out of Washington or Beijing could also alter the balance. For now, it’s a matter of watching the ranges, knowing where the pressure points are, and adjusting entries and exits accordingly.

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