Insights 
VT 
EUR/JPY has primary support at the 50-day EMA, situated at 172.47, with the 14-day RSI below 50, indicating a bearish trend. A return to the ascending channel could renew a bullish perspective for the currency pair.
The EUR/JPY halted its three-day decline, trading at approximately 172.60 during the Asian session on Thursday. The currency’s position below the ascending channel pattern suggests shifting from bullish to bearish, although re-entering the channel may indicate a temporary breakout, preserving the broader upward trend.
Bearish Sentiment
With the 14-day RSI under 50, the bearish sentiment is reinforced, as the pair trades under the nine-day EMA. Immediate support is at the 50-day EMA of 172.47, and a drop below could lead to testing the July 31 low of 169.72.
Re-entry into the channel might boost short-term momentum, allowing tests of the nine-day EMA at 173.59 and possibly advancing towards the channel’s upper boundary at 175.30, approaching the peak of 175.43 set in July 2024.
Percentage changes of major currencies show minor fluctuations, with the Euro displaying its strongest performance against the Canadian Dollar. The EUR/USD exhibits slight movement, with minimal changes relative to other currencies in the table.
As of October 2nd, 2025, we are watching the EUR/JPY pair test a critical support level around the 50-day moving average of 172.47. The pair has broken its recent upward trend, creating a moment of uncertainty for the market. This breakdown suggests a short-term bearish bias is taking hold.
Possible Rebound
The fundamental picture supports this cautious view, as recent data showed Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.5% in September 2025, reducing pressure on the European Central Bank to be aggressive. With the Relative Strength Index below 50, the momentum is currently with the sellers. Traders who share this bearish outlook could consider buying put options with a strike price below 172.00, targeting the three-month low of 169.72 that we saw on July 31st.
However, we must also consider the possibility of a sharp reversal if this is a false breakout. A move back into the ascending channel would signal that the longer-term uptrend, which saw the pair hit a high of 175.43 back in July 2024, is still intact. This could be fueled by the Bank of Japan’s continued reluctance to tighten its policy, despite Japan’s core inflation for August 2025 remaining elevated at 3.0%.
For those anticipating a rebound, buying call options above the 172.50 support level could be a viable strategy. A successful bounce would first target the 173.59 level, which is the 9-day moving average. If bullish momentum builds from there, we could see a push toward the upper channel boundary around 175.30 in the coming weeks.
