Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil witnessed a decrease in price during the early European session on Friday. WTI traded at $60.99 per barrel, down from the previous day’s close at $61.16, while Brent crude dropped to $64.82 from $64.99.
WTI Oil, a type of Crude Oil, originates from the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub. It shows low gravity and sulfur content, making it a high-quality Oil. Supply and demand are primary drivers of WTI Oil prices, along with global growth, political factors, and OPEC’s production quotas.
Oil Inventory Fluctuations
Fluctuations in Oil inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) can influence WTI prices. A drop in inventories usually suggests rising demand, while an increase implies a higher supply, impacting price accordingly. OPEC, with its 12 member nations, plays a role in determining production levels and influencing WTI prices.
In other news, Canada’s Unemployment Rate is expected to rise in September, hinting at potential rate cuts. The US continues to use tariffs as a foreign policy tool, reaffirming their stance in recent months. Additionally, Coinbase and Mastercard are reportedly competing to acquire stablecoin firm BVNK, with the deal valued at approximately $2 billion.
With West Texas Intermediate crude oil falling to around $60.99, we see a clear bearish signal in the market. This price action is occurring amid growing concerns about global economic health. The slight drop from yesterday’s close suggests momentum is currently to the downside for oil prices.
Global Economic Data Impact
These demand fears are supported by recent global economic data. The International Monetary Fund’s report from last week revised its global growth forecast for 2026 downward, citing slowing industrial activity in both Europe and Asia. The cooling Canadian labor market, a key US trading partner, further reinforces this narrative of weakening energy demand.
Adding pressure, the US Dollar Index has climbed to a six-month high of 106.5, making dollar-priced oil more expensive for foreign buyers. This strength is tied to the Federal Reserve’s recent minutes, which signal that interest rates will likely remain elevated into the new year. A strong dollar typically works against higher oil prices.
The most recent supply data also points towards weakness. Last Wednesday’s report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a surprise build in US crude inventories of 2.1 million barrels. This increase suggests that supply is outpacing current demand, confirming the bearish sentiment we’re seeing in the price.
Looking back, we saw a similar situation in late 2023 when fears of a global slowdown pushed oil prices down significantly, even as OPEC+ maintained production cuts. This history suggests that demand-side worries can often overpower supply management efforts in the short term. Derivative traders might therefore consider strategies that benefit from further price declines or sideways movement in the coming weeks.
However, we must keep an eye on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for early December 2025. There are already whispers that the group may announce deeper production cuts to establish a floor under prices. This future event could serve as a major bullish catalyst, meaning any bearish positions should be managed with caution as we get closer to that date.
