Insights 
VT 
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices saw an increase on Monday, with trading reaching $59.40 per barrel during the early European session, up from $57.91 at the previous close. Brent Crude stayed stable, maintaining its position close to $61.96.
WTI Oil, sourced in the US, is classified as “light” and “sweet” due to its low gravity and sulphur content, making it a high-quality choice for refinement. It is distributed via the Cushing hub in the US and is a popular benchmark in the oil market. Prices of WTI Oil are influenced by supply and demand, with factors such as global growth and geopolitical events having substantial impacts.
Impact Of Inventory Reports
The American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Agency (EIA) produce weekly reports on oil inventory, affecting WTI prices by showcasing supply-demand fluctuations. A decrease in inventories generally suggests increased demand, whereas higher inventories imply greater supply, affecting prices accordingly.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), alongside OPEC+, influences WTI prices through collective decisions on production quotas. The choices they make on adjusting production levels can significantly alter oil prices globally.
As of today, October 13, 2025, we see a much different picture than the one painted when WTI was trading below $60 a barrel. With WTI currently at $88.50, the bullishness is now tempered by significant global economic headwinds and persistent geopolitical risk. Traders should be positioning for volatility, as conflicting signals from supply and demand fundamentals are creating an uncertain environment.
The key driver has shifted from a simple recovery narrative to concerns over slowing global growth, which directly impacts demand. Looking back, the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts from 2023 and 2024 correctly anticipated a period of subdued economic expansion extending into 2025, a factor that is now weighing on consumption. This contrasts with the strong demand we saw during the post-pandemic rebound several years ago.
Geopolitical Tensions And Supply Side Factors
On the supply side, geopolitical tensions continue to add a significant risk premium to the price. The ongoing fallout from the conflict in Ukraine, which began back in 2022, has permanently altered European energy flows and keeps supply lines tight. We must also price in the constant potential for disruptions in the Middle East, which prevents prices from falling despite weaker demand forecasts.
OPEC+ remains a critical player, actively managing production to support prices above the $80 threshold. The group has maintained its policy of production cuts established in late 2022 and 2023, showing a commitment to preventing a price collapse similar to what we saw in previous downturns. Traders should anticipate that any sign of weakening demand will be met with verbal intervention or further supply cuts from key members like Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Meanwhile, the strength of the US Dollar, a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes through 2023 to combat inflation, is acting as a ceiling on crude prices. At the same time, we are seeing U.S. crude oil production remain robust, with EIA data from earlier this year showing output holding near the record 13.2 million barrels per day. The upcoming weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA will be crucial to watch for evidence of either weakening demand or unexpected supply draws.
