Silver Price Outlook

Silver prices dipped by 0.50% during the Asian session, trading around $36.40-$36.35. The market anticipates the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, causing hesitation in placing new directional bets.

The technical setup reveals a mixed outlook with the MACD histogram and signal line pointing lower. Yet, the RSI remains above 50, suggesting any drop below $36.00 might still offer a buying chance, with support near $35.50-$35.40.

A break below these levels could lead to a decline towards $35.00 and potentially to $34.75. Conversely, holding above $36.60 might push prices towards the $37.30-$37.35 range, continuing a three-month-long uptrend.

Silver’s appeal stems from its status as a store of value and its industrial uses, especially in electronics and solar energy. Its price is influenced by geopolitical instability, interest rates, the US Dollar, mining supply, and recycling rates.

Silver prices often mirror Gold’s due to similar safe-haven access, judged by the Gold/Silver ratio. A higher ratio may suggest Silver’s undervaluation or Gold’s overvaluation, while a lower ratio could indicate the reverse.

Market Volatility and Trader Sentiment

With volatility tightening ahead of the US jobs data, we’ve found traders choosing to stay on the sidelines for now, reluctant to commit to directional bias without stronger conviction. That recent slip in silver—just half a percent—doesn’t set any dramatic tone on its own, but it reflects a cautious market that’s more reactive than proactive this week.

From the charts, the technicals are pulling in two directions. MACD signals are softening, pointing to reduced momentum and possible fading of short-term strength. Meanwhile, the RSI is still holding above midline, implying there’s yet support for price levels unless that support base at $36.00 gives way. Should sellers push the metal below that figure, we’d likely see an early test of the $35.50 shelf, and possibly further down to $35.00—levels where demand has returned previously. There isn’t much in the way of noise below $35.00 until around $34.75, which has acted as a pivot during previous corrections.

However, should bids emerge and defend that $36.60 mark convincingly, there’s plenty of technical fuel for a renewed jump towards recent highs near $37.30. Price has respected the three-month trend channel so far, and barring a catalyst from Friday’s data, that trajectory remains intact. We watch for volume confirmation here—price action alone doesn’t complete the picture without seeing commitment from buyers.

The demand side for the metal remains underpinned by two separate but equally important roles—as both a reserve of purchasing power and a necessary component in emerging technologies, particularly renewables and electronics. This duality explains the resilience even in a generally rising yield environment, although we all know rates and the strength of the greenback don’t make things easy.

For context, we see strength in the dollar generally taming metals upside, and any sign of hawkish shift from policy-makers could weigh on commodities further. What might be more pressing in the near-term though is how this all interacts with the broader risk profile. One eye on geopolitical headlines, another on inflation gauges; it’s a balance between defensive allocation and macroeconomic data.

Traders keeping tabs on the Gold/Silver ratio might note how last week’s widening put silver at relative discount—depending on interpretation. When the ratio stretches, it’s not always sustainable. We tend to ask whether silver is too cheap, or whether gold is simply overstretched, and that can tilt short-term reversion trades.

Near-term, those aiming to build exposure need to watch levels more than usual—reaction around $36.00 and $36.60 will determine if buyers are still in control, or if we see a deeper retracement. Timing here may matter more than direction, especially with options pricing in higher volatility into the NFP release.

In the next two weeks, price sensitivity to US data will probably heighten—particularly where inflation and labour markets intersect. For now, trend-followers might stay reactive rather than leading, while mean-reversion setups remain viable into known support zones. It’s a question of patience and chart discipline.

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