Insights 
VT 
Usd Chf Trading Insights
Ahead of a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the US Dollar Index held steady around 99.00. The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes revealed a potential easing in policy due to increased employment risks. The USD/CHF stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.7975, indicating a bullish trend, although the Relative Strength Index indicates a contraction in volatility.
Potential rises may see the pair surpass its August 1 high of 0.8170, with further increases towards June highs. Conversely, if it falls below the September 17 low of 0.7829, a decline towards 0.7800 is plausible. The US Dollar, accounting for over 88% of global transactions, is influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Quantitative easing typically weakens the Dollar, while quantitative tightening often results in a stronger currency.
As of today, October 9, 2025, we see the USD/CHF trading at a monthly high near 0.8040, driven by a strong US Dollar Index which is holding firm around the 99.00 level. All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today, as this will set the tone for the coming weeks. The market is positioned for a significant move, but the direction is uncertain.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to signal further rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, a view supported by the recent September Non-Farm Payrolls data which showed a gain of only 95,000 jobs, missing forecasts. This focus on a weakening labor market comes as the latest CPI data showed inflation cooling to a 2.1% annual rate, giving the Fed room to ease policy. A confirmation of this dovish stance from Powell would likely weaken the US Dollar.
Trading Strategy and Expectations
On the other side of the pair, we don’t expect the Swiss National Bank to push interest rates back into negative territory. Looking back, the SNB only exited its negative rate policy in September 2022, and with current Swiss inflation holding steady near 1.5%, they have little reason to return to such an extreme measure. This provides a solid floor of support for the Swiss Franc.
Given the coiled price action, with the RSI suggesting a big move is coming, we believe using options to trade the anticipated volatility is the best approach. A long straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option, would allow traders to profit from a sharp breakout following Powell’s speech, regardless of the direction. The current low implied volatility makes this an attractive strategy.
For those with a bullish bias, a surprisingly firm tone from Powell could cause the pair to surge higher. In this scenario, we would look to buy call options with a strike price above the August 1 high of 0.8170. This would align with the current bullish trend, which has kept the price above its 20-day moving average.
Conversely, if Powell confirms the market’s dovish expectations, the dollar’s recent strength will likely reverse sharply. We would then pivot to buying put options, targeting a break below the September 17 low of 0.7829. This trade is based on the fundamental expectation that Fed rate cuts are coming before the year is over.
