Insights 
VT 
PBF Energy Inc., a major U.S. petroleum refiner, saw its stock surge 15.67% to close at $34.10 due to a rise in global oil prices. This increase was primarily driven by new U.S. sanctions on Russia that have reduced global oil supply by limiting Russian sales to markets like India, thereby elevating demand for domestic refiners.
Technical Analysis for PBF Energy
Technical analysis reveals that this development has brought PBF Energy close to surpassing a significant technical level. The stock closed just under a long-term trendline at $34.20, a threshold it has struggled to breach since August 2024. With geopolitical factors supporting the stock’s momentum, PBF may soon break and sustain a position above this level.
Exceeding the $34.20 mark could prompt further buying opportunities, as the stock might then target a resistance level at $38.25. This point could act as an initial obstacle towards achieving the short-term target of $44.06. The ongoing inclining trendline is expected to guide the trajectory towards this objective.
Given the powerful 15.67% surge PBF Energy experienced yesterday, we are now positioned directly at the critical $34.20 pivot. This move was driven by new sanctions on Russian oil, which fundamentally strengthens the outlook for domestic refiners. For us, this represents an immediate and actionable technical test.
Impact of Rising Oil Prices
We have seen Brent crude futures respond by surging past $110 a barrel this week, the highest level since the summer of 2025. This aligns with recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing U.S. refinery crack spreads have widened by over 12% in October. These factors confirm the strong fundamental tailwind behind this stock.
For those of us anticipating a breakout, buying November or December 2025 call options is the most direct approach. We are looking at strikes near the $38 level, corresponding with the next major resistance target of $38.25. A confirmed break above $34.20 on heavy volume would be our trigger to enter.
However, yesterday’s sharp price increase has likely inflated implied volatility, making options more expensive. A more cost-effective strategy would be a bull call spread, such as buying the November $35 call and selling the November $40 call. This move would allow us to profit from the expected upward drift while capping our initial cost.
Another approach is to sell cash-secured puts with a strike price at or slightly below the $34.20 level. This strategy expresses our belief that the stock will not fall back below this new support in the coming weeks. It allows us to collect premium while we wait for the upward trend to continue toward the $44 target.
We remember a similar setup in the energy sector back in early 2022, when geopolitical events sparked a major rally that handsomely rewarded those positioned for a breakout. The current macro environment and technical posture feel very familiar. We should treat any dip toward the $34.20 level as a potential opportunity to initiate or add to bullish positions.
