A prior move by the US Treasury to buy more long-dated US bonds was followed by scrutiny of USD performance across multiple markets, including NVIDIA, Gold and XAU/USD, as well as USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, AUD/NZD and AUD/USD. The approach described relies on buying dips in USD pairs such as AUD/USD at a lower trend line, while monitoring whether that structure is shifting as confidence in the USD weakens. Technical signals referenced include the stochastic oscillator for reversal cues and ADX confirmation; a fast turn lower in the red DI- line is treated as a sign a short-term retracement has run out of momentum.
Attention turns to data risk, with Australian CPI due tomorrow and US PCE plus GDP also scheduled, implying heightened volatility for AUD/USD and related crosses. If annual CPI prints below 3.3%, it is framed as a signal the RBA may not need to raise rates this year, which would pressure AUD. AUD/NZD is described as ranging on the 4-hour chart, while the daily view points to a softer AUD. CHF crosses moved last week after the SNB did not rule out negative rates, then reversed following the Treasury bond episode; CAD pairs showed a weekend gap tied to US trade demands, leaving USD/CAD sensitive to US–Canada trade developments. Gold has pulled back, while NVIDIA reports earnings tomorrow after its share price has been falling for more than one week.
USD Volatility, Technical Triggers, And Macro Data Releases
We are currently navigating a highly volatile period for the US Dollar as global confidence in the currency wavers. Following recent treasury interventions, we should prepare for continued pressure on USD pairs over the coming weeks. Derivative traders should look to buy the dip on AUD/USD, especially as it tests major support lines.
To time these entries, we are monitoring the stochastic oscillator and the Average Directional Index (ADX) to catch quick trend reversals. Tomorrow’s Australian CPI release is a critical trigger, with consensus estimates hovering around 3.2%. If the inflation rate drops below 3.3%, we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates steady, which will likely push the AUD down temporarily against its long-term bullish trend.
We also have key US economic data arriving this week, including the second estimate for Q2 GDP and the Core PCE index. Economists expect US GDP growth to hold steady at around 2.8%, while the PCE inflation rate is projected to remain sticky near 2.6%. Traders should prepare for sharp, short-term swings in AUD/USD and USD/CAD as these reports release.
Crosses, Commodities, And Earnings-Driven Volatility
In the meantime, we are capitalizing on ranging markets by trading the AUD/NZD on the 4-hour chart. However, we must remain cautious as the daily chart shows signs of underlying AUD weakness. For Swiss Franc pairs, we recommend watching for reversals after the Swiss National Bank’s hints of returning to negative interest rates sent shockwaves through the market last week.
On the USD/CAD front, the recent weekend gap shows that geopolitics and trade negotiations are currently overriding technical indicators. Trade tensions between the US and Canada have stalled the Loonie’s recovery, making this a fundamentally driven market for now. We should wait for concrete progress in these trade talks before initiating heavy short positions on USD/CAD.
Gold remains incredibly resilient, trading near historic highs of over $2,510 per ounce despite recent minor pullbacks. We view this recent dip as healthy profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. If US PCE data prints softer than expected this week, we expect a strong bullish continuation toward new record levels.
Finally, we must keep a close eye on NVIDIA’s earnings report tomorrow, August 26, which is set to dictate the direction of tech derivatives. Option markets are currently pricing in a massive 9.3% swing in NVIDIA’s share price, which has fallen over 6% in the last ten days. We can use this anticipated volatility to set up straddles or iron condors to capture premium from the post-earnings implied volatility crush.
