The BLS will publish October NFP on Friday at 13:30 GMT, with consensus looking for 65K jobs after September’s 29K. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4.2%, while AHE is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month from 0.1%. The Fed held its policy rate at 3.75%-4% in October, and markets still price a 25 bps hike in December, though the report’s composition could sway expectations for early 2027 and, by extension, USD valuation.
Some banks expect FX volatility around the release: one projects 40K NFP and argues softer data could extend a USD pullback after a rally since September. Elsewhere, a weaker print at or below 30K is framed as a risk for USD, partly because it could undermine the roughly 20% probability of a January hike tracked by CME FedWatch, lifting EUR/USD. A stronger outcome above 80K could bolster USD and pressure the pair, though positioning may be capped before next week’s inflation data. Technically, EUR/USD holds above the 20-day SMA as RSI sits just under 50, with levels flagged at 1.1350 and 1.1420 on the upside and 1.1130 then 1.1000 below.
Key EUR/USD Levels And Historical Reactions
As we face today’s October Nonfarm Payrolls release, we should prepare for quick moves in major currency pairs like EUR/USD around key technical levels. A weak reading at or below 30K could break resistance at 1.1350 and target 1.1420 as markets lower their expectations for rate hikes in early 2027. If the data surprises above 80K, we might see a short-lived drop toward support at 1.1130 before next week’s US inflation data takes over.
Historical data shows that post-midterm elections often lead to a softer US Dollar, similar to the 2% to 3% pullback seen after the 2018 midterms. Market research also indicates that NFP surprises larger than 30K typically trigger an average move of 40 to 50 pips in EUR/USD within the first two hours. We can use these historical patterns to position for a broader Dollar consolidation into year-end rather than chasing initial knee-jerk spikes.
Rate Hike Expectations And Risk Management
Because a 25 basis point Fed rate hike for December is already widely expected, we need to focus on how wage inflation dictates the rate outlook for early 2027. If Average Hourly Earnings rise to 0.3% as projected, persistent labor costs could limit how far the Fed can ease policy next year. We should keep risk limits tight and avoid over-leveraging options or futures contracts until the upcoming inflation releases confirm the broader macroeconomic trend.
