The Dollar index (DX.F) has broken above last week’s high and printed a fresh local peak, with 101.88 the near-term pivot: a daily close above that level would also close Friday’s bearish gap. Attention then shifts to the 102.36–102.44 supply zone, defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–2026 decline and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension on the daily chart. On the weekly view, price is pressing into compounded resistance at the upper boundary of a multi-week rising wedge alongside the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025 to February 2026 drop; the correction risk remains unless there is a daily close above 102.50.
Silver (SI.F) failed on Friday to clear last Tuesday’s bearish gap at 6103–6171, yet the lower boundary of a declining channel continues to act as support. Despite a bearish engulfing candle, Asia trade opened higher to form a bullish gap at 6041–6070, and bulls are now pushing back towards closing the 6103–6171 gap while targeting the 6500 area, including the 6466–6480 gap, provided price holds above 6171 into the daily close. CCI and Stochastics are flashing preliminary buy signals; on the downside, a break below 6000 followed by a daily close under 5988 would negate the bullish setup.
Dollar Index: Watching Key Resistance and Pivots
We are currently seeing the US dollar push into fresh local highs, but derivative traders should focus on key decision points rather than chasing the immediate momentum. Historically, the dollar index has shown strong resistance around the 102 level during transitional economic phases, similar to patterns observed after historical monetary policy shifts. To confirm a sustained bullish breakout in the coming weeks, we need to watch if the index can secure a daily close above the crucial 101.88 level to close the recent gap.
If the bulls maintain this momentum, our next major upside target sits in the 102.36 to 102.44 range, which aligns with long-term Fibonacci retracements. However, we must prepare for a potential short-term correction because the dollar is currently testing a heavy multi-week rising wedge resistance zone. Only a clean daily close above 102.50 would completely invalidate this bearish correction scenario and open the door for a much larger upward run.
Silver: Channel Support and Bullish Gaps in Focus
In the precious metals market, silver has successfully defended its lower channel boundaries, mirroring historical setups where metals find solid footing during periods of currency consolidation. Recent technical momentum has created a fresh bullish gap between 6041 and 6070, which has already started attracting buyers back into the market. We should look for silver to hold above 6171 on a daily closing basis to confirm a run toward the 6500 resistance area.
On the weekly charts, the long-term downtrend line is acting as a reliable support floor, which historically points to a higher probability of a sustained counterattack. However, we must remain disciplined because momentum indicators like the commodity channel index and stochastics are only just starting to flash preliminary buy signals. A breakdown below the 6000 level and a daily close under 5988 would invalidate this bullish setup entirely, signaling that sellers have regained control.
In the coming weeks, our primary strategy is to avoid rushing into premature positions and instead wait for these critical daily levels to be confirmed. Given that market volatility often spikes during these technical transition phases, conserving capital and letting the market prove its direction is key. We should let the price action dictate our next moves rather than trying to predict the breakout before it actually happens.
