Deutsche Bank expects roughly 25–30 policy measures in the Autumn Budget, combining modest fiscal consolidation with tax rises that are pushed towards the end of the forecast. It sees around 20 receipts measures in total, with a higher bank surcharge, VAT collection via online marketplaces and higher dividend tax lifting revenues later on. Temporary tax discounts are expected to reduce receipts in 2026/27 and 2027/28, before turning additive from 2028/29; by 2031/32, additional tax take is put at GBP 4.3bn, while a narrower set of measures is framed as raising about GBP 4bn by 2031/32.
Taxation Measures and Revenue Expectations
It sees around 20 receipts measures in total, with a higher bank surcharge, VAT collection via online marketplaces and higher dividend tax lifting revenues later on. Temporary tax discounts are expected to reduce receipts in 2026/27 and 2027/28, before turning additive from 2028/29; by 2031/32, additional tax take is put at GBP 4.3bn, while a narrower set of measures is framed as raising about GBP 4bn by 2031/32.
Spending, Support Initiatives, and Expenditure Projections
On spending, the bank forecasts consolidation of GBP 6bn in 2029/30, rising to GBP 7.5bn by 2031/32, designed to offset slightly higher outlays of about GBP 3bn in 2031/32. It also anticipates cost-of-living and business support, including business rates discounts for hospitality and other exposed sectors, a higher small business rates relief threshold from GBP 12k to 18k, cancellation of Climate Change Levy indexation, and an income tax exemption for low-income pensioners. Net spending is seen rising by around GBP 1bn in each of the first two fiscal years, then broadly flat, taking total managed expenditure to around GBP 1,700bn by 2031/32, about GBP 30bn above the Spring Statement projection.
