EUR/USD saw modest declines around 1.1565 during the early European session on Monday. The bearish stance remains as the pair stays below the 100-day EMA, with the RSI also indicating further potential downside. The first level for resistance is at 1.1575, while initial support is at 1.1468.

On Wednesday, EUR/USD traded with slight losses close to 1.1565. The US dollar gained against the euro amid hopes that the US government shutdown may terminate shortly. Further details are awaited from the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence report, set for release later this week.

Potential Technical Move

A break above the 100-day EMA at 1.1575 could initiate bullish momentum towards 1.1668. Meanwhile, the potential downside could lead to a move towards 1.1403, with additional support at 1.1364.

The Euro, the currency for 20 European Union nations, made up 31% of all foreign exchange transactions in 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) manages monetary policy for the Eurozone, using interest rates to maintain price stability. Eurozone inflation data plays a key role, with higher-than-expected figures potentially leading to interest rate adjustments by the ECB.

Various economic indicators, such as GDP and trade balance, can influence the Euro’s value. A strong economy or a positive trade balance generally benefits the currency.

We are looking at a bearish technical setup that echoes past market cycles, particularly the sentiment seen in the late 2010s when the pair traded around 1.15. As of November 10, 2025, the EUR/USD is trading much lower at approximately 1.0720, indicating a significant long-term shift has already occurred. This long-term downtrend keeps the pressure on the downside for any short-term rallies.

Options Strategies

The pair currently sits below its 50-day moving average of 1.0780, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is weak, holding at 42. This technical picture suggests that sellers remain in control, and any move toward the moving average is likely to be met with resistance. The logic from past analyses holds; as long as we remain capped below key technical levels, the path of least resistance is lower.

Given this sustained bearish outlook, traders could consider buying out-of-the-money put options with December expirations. A strike price around 1.0600 would provide a way to capitalize on a potential slide toward the lows seen earlier this year. This strategy limits risk to the premium paid while offering significant upside if the dollar continues to strengthen.

Fundamental data from last week supports this view, with the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on November 7th adding a stronger-than-expected 210,000 jobs. This contrasts sharply with recent Eurozone data, where German industrial production fell 0.8% in October, fueling concerns about economic stagnation. The policy divergence between a data-dependent Federal Reserve and a more cautious European Central Bank continues to favor the dollar.

For those anticipating a slower grind down rather than a sharp drop, a bear put spread could be more appropriate. By simultaneously buying a higher-priced put and selling a lower-priced one, traders can reduce the initial cost of their position. This is a suitable strategy if we expect the pair to drift toward the 1.0650 support level over the next few weeks.

Implied volatility in EUR/USD one-month options is currently at 7.5%, which is elevated compared to the summer lows but not yet at panic levels. This moderate volatility makes option selling strategies, such as writing covered calls against an existing long position, an appealing way to generate income. It also suggests that option premiums for directional bets are not excessively expensive right now.

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