Insights 
VT 
The Oil price seeks to move beyond $60.00 as prospects of US-China trade war easing surface. US-China talks are happening this week, aiming to de-escalate the tariff conflict.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hopes to climb past the $60.00 mark during European trading. Optimism surrounds potential de-escalation between the US and China, which could influence Oil prices.
Us China Trade Discussions
US and Chinese officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, plan to discuss trade issues in Switzerland. The intent is to ease tariff tensions, with current US tariffs on China at 145% and China’s retaliation at 125%.
Reduced trade war fears boost Oil prices, as China is the world’s biggest Oil importer. OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day since September 2022, affecting Oil price momentum.
WTI Oil, a type of Crude Oil, is often quoted in media and is a benchmark for Oil markets. Supply and demand, global growth, political instability, OPEC decisions, and US Dollar value affect WTI prices.
Oil inventory reports by the API and EIA impact WTI prices by indicating supply and demand changes. OPEC influences Oil prices through production quotas, affecting supply levels.
Market Reactions To Ongoing Negotiations
At present, we’re seeing Oil trudging upwards, with WTI poised nearby the $60.00 level. What’s propelled this move is the apparent thawing of tensions between Washington and Beijing, with talks this week stirring fresh belief that tariffs may soon be scaled back. While nothing definitive has emerged yet, markets are behaving as though progress is expected, and prices are responding accordingly.
The dialogue planned in Switzerland, where Bessent and his counterparts are to meet, appears to be more than symbolic. Tariffs remain high—145% on Chinese imports into the US and 125% the other way—so even minor revisions downward could revive trade flows between the two largest economies. That, in turn, has an immediate and visible impact on energy markets.
Remember, China continues to be the largest Oil importer globally. Any signal that its purchasing power could increase, whether through improved growth prospects or reduced tariff burdens, shifts the near-term balance in Oil markets. Notably, traders have already begun adjusting exposure in anticipation.
At the same time, OPEC+’s production levels continue to matter. The announced lift in collective output—2.2 million barrels daily since Q3 last year—adds volume to the system, tilting the supply side. Still, despite the ongoing supply expansion, prices have held above major support levels, largely due to demand optimism linked to restored geopolitical business flows. We’re not seeing a collapse in Oil even as more barrels enter the market, which says much about buyers’ expectations.
Price action around API and EIA stockpile figures continues to produce short-term movement. Recent inventory drawdowns have supported upward pressure, especially when falling stock levels contradict rising supply trends. It’s a data set fewer are ignoring now, particularly on Wednesday evenings and Thursday mornings, when volatility briefly spikes.
As traders, it’s essential to watch not just the output figures or macro headlines but also foreign exchange implications. The value of the US Dollar, for instance, has quietly grown in influence again, especially as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. A stronger Dollar tends to limit Oil’s upside, making contracts more expensive in other currencies. So movements in USD can undermine otherwise bullish Oil flows, including those powered by geopolitical improvements.
With all this colliding, there’s a clear hierarchy taking shape in terms of drivers. International diplomacy is pulling sentiment upward, and unless talks break down, the immediate skew appears upward-bias. That said, with production still rising and refiners yet to show a marked increase in activity, supply levels can offset too much enthusiasm. The reaction over the next API release will give us better colour on buying momentum.
Position sizes should reflect the current volatility and the somewhat binary outcome of these trade discussions. A break above $60.00 needs confirmation through either further political agreement outcomes or another stockpile draw. Without them, buyers may not have the resolve to hold the line. We’ll seek clarity through December on whether improving demand or persistent oversupply tips the balance, but for now, response remains highly news-driven.
