The crude oil market remains within a steady range, despite recent US military actions against Iran. Traders appear to be focusing on an eventual easing of tensions, with a low likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz closing. After an initial spike due to Israel’s attack on Iran, the market stabilised, erasing gains from US strikes over the weekend.

Current market movements suggest that traders are not overly concerned about the conflict affecting oil supply. The primary focus is on the Strait of Hormuz’s operational status. It is likely that price levels will remain unchanged unless clear signs of reduced conflict emerge or if there are disruptions to oil exports through the Strait.

Technical Analysis Of Crude Oil Prices

On the daily chart, the crude oil price failed to break a major trendline and has filled the initial opening gap. It continues to move between a support level of 72.00 and a resistance level of 78.00. This range might persist unless there are strong indications of tension easing or export disruptions.

The 1-hour chart indicates rangebound activity, with buying interest near the 72.00 level pushing for higher prices. To provoke a significant downturn, sellers need the price to breach the 72.00 zone and target a deeper decline towards 65.00.

With the backdrop of continued geopolitical unease, the oil market has shown an unusual resilience, holding firmly within a defined channel. The knee-jerk reactions that some expected from the recent military interventions did not materialise beyond short-term volatility. Though heightened activity was observed, it was promptly absorbed by the market within hours, not days, suggesting a broader comfort level among traders with the idea that supply may not be diverted or halted imminently.

Watched levels remain unchanged for now. Price action is gravitating around previously tested levels, with buyers consistently stepping in near 72.00. That zone, at present, serves as a dependable floor, and only persistent downward pressure with increased volume is likely to break it. Sellers are clearly eyeing it, yet lack the necessary momentum. Until this level gives way with conviction, it will be seen less as a risk and more as a point of opportunity for speculative re-entries.

Impact On Trading Strategies

Meanwhile, daily price action reflects an easing bias toward fundamental data and less toward headline risks. This means short-term spikes driven by breaking news are viewed through a lens of transience—participants fade rallies as long as flows remain undisturbed and shipping lanes stay open. A sharp move past 78.00 could trigger repositioning, but without fresh catalysts pointing either to instability in supply infrastructure or verifiable diplomacy, it’s unlikely to hold. The technical ceiling remains respected, acting as a focal line where longs find little appetite and shorts increase confidence.

We expect a continuation of this back-and-forth movement. Late last week saw the market knock against the upper boundary, but the failure to maintain a grip above that region has brought energies back down toward the midpoint. That mid-range churn will remain familiar unless we get a new input that demands a redraw of current expectations.

The thinner hourly timeframe gives some additional clarity. Buying reactions remain narrowly timed and tend to emerge predictably near 72.00, without extending much beyond intraday sessions. These bounces, while present, appear more opportunistic than driven by deeper conviction. Should this pattern persist, it may lure in trend-followers who lean on this sort of mechanical repetition. But if those buyers fail to reclaim the upper edge of the channel in the coming days, that smaller timeframe buoyancy could begin to fade. A slip below 71.80 with volume would mark the first technical sign that something has shifted on a trader’s screen.

While attention remains camped on geopolitics, it’s the consistency in technical structure that is offering clearer direction. We’ve seen only mild deviations from the range, and all have been retraced fully within a matter of sessions. Without departures from this behaviour or alterations in shipping or regional flows, much of the trade will continue to be driven by short-term positioning rather than directional conviction.

For those watching the spreads, no prevailing shift has yet emerged that would prompt a wider rethink in directional lean. Structural backwardation remains intact but has not steepened in a way that suggests inventory stresses or acceleration in drawdowns. That hints at supply chains functioning without relevant disruption, at least from a pricing perspective.

Volatility metrics remain compressed. A move outside this low-volatility context could trigger broader repositioning, particularly from those who have been fading moves within the current range. Yet we note that those fade strategies remain effective until something falters structurally, and thus far, that hasn’t happened.

With that in mind, we’re positioning near the boundaries with tighter risk parameters and limiting exposure to only those moves that show breakout signals confirmed by flow or volume. Patience remains in limited supply among market participants, yet continued discipline pays within this sort of grind.

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