Insights 
VT 
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has experienced a year-to-date surge of over 130%, trading near $184.63. The company’s increased government contracts, like a $10 billion U.S. Army deal and a £1.5 billion U.K. partnership, have led it to exceed Q2 earnings projections with $1 billion in revenue and 16 cents in EPS. Despite raising its full-year guidance, concerns about its high forward P/E ratio above 200 persist. Analysts remain cautious, issuing a “Hold” rating with varied price targets from $45 to $215.
Palantir is extending its commercial influence through partnerships, such as with Snowflake, to enhance AI capabilities. This aligns Foundry, Gotham, Apollo, and AIP with both public and private sectors. However, trading at 277 times forward earnings, the risk of downward pressure looms if Palantir fails to meet growth expectations. Competitors like AMD and ASML may seem appealing if Palantir’s valuation proves unmaintainable.
Recent Elliott Wave analysis highlights Palantir’s stock movement, showing a rise to $190.00 followed by a dip to $142.34, marking wave IV. Wave V is anticipated to extend, targeting $201.49–$219.79. A correction could revisit $142.34, speculating a potential retracement to $100 per share.
With Palantir trading near $184.63 after a massive 130% run-up this year, we see the stock as fundamentally stretched and technically nearing a peak. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 200, a level that demands absolute perfection. With Q3 earnings just weeks away in November 2025, any slight miss on growth could serve as the catalyst for a significant correction.
We believe the stock is making a final push higher, potentially into the $201–$220 target zone as outlined by technical analysis. Traders looking to capture this last bit of upside could use short-dated call options that expire in late November. We saw a similar pattern in late 2023 with other AI stocks that had a final surge before entering a multi-month consolidation phase.
The more compelling strategy, however, may be to prepare for the downside that follows. Given that implied volatility on Palantir options is currently high, buying puts outright is expensive. A better approach could be selling out-of-the-money bear call spreads with a strike above $220, allowing traders to profit from time decay if the stock fails to reach new highs.
We must also consider the broader market, as the S&P 500 is up nearly 20% year-to-date, and high-growth stocks like Palantir are most vulnerable during a market pullback. The key technical level to watch on the downside is $142.34. A decisive break below that price would signal the correction has begun, with a potential retest of the $100 support level.
