Insights 
VT 
Gold Price Technical Analysis
The Gold price currently fluctuates around $3,335 within Thursday’s range, lacking clear direction. This uncertainty surfaces as the US President, Donald Trump, prepares to announce new trade deals ahead of the looming July 9 tariff deadline.
US trade agreements with the United Kingdom and Vietnam have been confirmed, with an agreement framework in place with China. Trump hopes to strike further deals, notably with India, before the tariff deadline. He plans to start dispatching trade tariff notifications imminently.
Market sentiment suggests US reciprocal tariffs on countries like Japan, Eurozone, Canada, and Mexico could escalate the global trade tensions. Gold, viewed as a safe haven, sees demand rising amidst these geopolitical issues. Concerns also surround the fiscal impact of Trump’s tax-cut bill, expected to inflate the national debt significantly over the decade.
Technical analysis of gold shows its price near the 20-day EMA ($3,342) with the RSI indicating a sideways trend. Potential price breaks above $3,500 suggest new highs, with resistance at $3,550 and $3,600. Conversely, a drop below $3,245 could push prices towards $3,200.
Gold, a historical store of value, is a preferred asset during economic uncertainty and inflation, held significantly by central banks to stabilize currency reserves. Its price is inversely correlated with the US Dollar and interest rates.
With talks and deals in motion, the directional pull on gold prices remains heavily tied to external forces, namely trade announcements and fiscal expectations from the current U.S. administration. As of now, pricing hovers narrowly around $3,335, showing no strong motion in either direction. That’s telling us price discovery is hesitating—trading volumes may be thinner, or participants are simply reluctant to commit ahead of stronger headlines.
Market Impact Of Trade Tariffs
Recent developments confirm deals between the United States and both the United Kingdom and Vietnam, while a framework with China hangs in balance. With ambitions stated for tying things off with India—with very little time left before the July tariff marker—this creates a dense event-driven window where uncertainty is compressed into days rather than weeks. Particularly with the intention to begin issuing trade notifications quickly, it’s fair to expect market reactions may not wait for the actual deadline before starting to move decisively.
Tariffs aimed at traditional partners such as Japan, key members in the Eurozone, Canada, and also Mexico, would present additional policy-induced roadblocks. Were those to emerge, they would likely deepen the perception of risk among investors. Some of us remember how isolated triggers in trade policy cascaded into demand for hard assets before—even when short-term rates were climbing. So while short-term volatility may remain fed by news flow, the net effect is likely to put a natural floor under demand for risk-averse hedges.
From our charting tools, the current sideways shuffle is clear. The 20-day EMA sits almost flat, acting more like a mid-point pivot than a trend guide, and the RSI, lacking conviction, leans neither into strength nor weakness. There’s a technical squeeze forming, suggesting a breakout is due. If the upper thresholds around $3,500 do give way, we should anticipate buy-side activity climbing steadily. Once through $3,550, some options dealers may seek protection or unwind gamma hedges, accelerating intraday swings. However, if $3,245 gives out, we’ve got open air down through to about $3,200, and tactical sellers would likely reassert dominance. Watch for sudden momentum shifts tied to sharp language from policymakers.
Separately, the tax measures being implemented are casting a longer-term shadow. Budget simulations now point to substantially increased borrowing requirements over the next ten years. That’s leading to fresh debate on creditworthiness and long-dated yields. If bond yields climb without restraint, it typically strengthens the dollar and dampens gold’s appeal. Yet, when this rise stems from nervous deficit expansion rather than outright growth, the flight to tangible stores of value, like bullion, tends to surge. We’ve seen this playbook before, in 2010 and in smaller echoes during mid-cycle tightening periods.
The negative relationship between interest rates, the greenback, and gold hasn’t vanished. But what’s shifted is the amplitude. Central bank buying continues too, unrelenting through pricing swings. They’re not chasing yield; they’ve been increasingly trying to preserve long-term purchasing power of their reserves. That’s worth bearing in mind whenever temporary dips seem to tempt a reversal. So we’re keeping close tabs not just on what’s announced, but what’s implied during press briefings, especially from fiscal or trade officials.
At these levels, where gold sits listlessly between two major technical seams, options pricing offers a hint. Implied volatility has begun to drift upward. Not drastically—but enough to suggest hedgers are positioning for movement. And if one side breaks first, the lag in stop-losses triggering may lead to exaggerated sessions.
It’s an environment where acting too quickly, chasing the first move, may lead you straight into whipsaws. But remaining too passive risks being caught wrongfooted if the market runs. We’re watching participation levels during each session close, looking for volume on follow-through. Only then can we start adjusting exposure with more confidence.
